URGENT Market Update: Tariff Panic And Recession Fears — Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel

**Raoul Pal** (0:00)
Hi, everyone, I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.
Well, hey everyone, welcome to a special flash update from Julien and I to help you navigate what the hell is going on and how to think about this. We think it's a really important week, and I can sense peak fear out there. I put some tweets, but Julien and I really wanted to go through in detail what is happening. Now this is happening across X, it's happening across YouTube, and it's on the Real Vision platform. We will do the presentation first, and a conversation, then we'll go to questions on the Real Vision platform. So that's realvision.com/join, it's free, but there there'll be at least another half an hour of questions where you're going to get to hear our views as people do that. Now, the only questions are from Pro members and Plus members. So you guys all get to hear the questions if you're on the Real Vision platform, Plus and Pro, you get to ask the questions. At the end of this, the presentation will be made available to Plus and Pro members. There'll be some trade recommendation updates for global macro investor and Pro members probably at the middle of the week. We're just waiting to see how things go. And there's also a special conversation with ChatGPT. I'll talk about a little bit later towards the end of the presentation about how to think that thing through and that will also be for Pro and GMI members. So look, there's something for everybody here, but really for all of you on YouTube, X, Real Vision, we're here to help. We're here to guide you through what's going to really matter and how to think about things. As you know, Julien and I have built a massive framework. We're not just shooting from the hip using a few charts. This is based on 30 years of work and understanding of where we are. As ever, I like to start with the big picture, so you understand how we think of things. Now, this is the core work that I've done for a long time at Global Macro Investor. Julien and I put together in something called the Everything Code is where it all came together. I'm not going to go through all of the Everything Code. You can see the YouTube video about it, but this should update you and understand. So this work is Global Macro Investor, as I said, this is where our big thinking gets done, where all of the new ideas come from. That's the premium research service that most of you don't get and can't afford and whatever. But I do like to give it out to people from time to time to make sure you understand how we think. Before we kick off, I just want you to stare at this for a little bit. This is the Don't Fuck This Up Rule Book. And it's how to navigate these times. No leverage. Anybody with leverage has been blown up. No FOMO. So don't chase the peaks and don't sell at the lows. The further you are out the risk curve, the further your bag is down now. That's okay. I have Sui Solana as my main holding, so they're down more. Bitcoin is down less. You need to understand the risk curve. Then don't get fleeced, don't lose control of your tokens by attaching some stupid website. Only have a small DJ bag. Remember when everybody thought that means we're going to be the biggest thing of all time, they've all gone to zero? That's because that's so far out the risk curve. It should be small and it should be there for fun, yet unlikely to make a fortune. The longer term time horizon is everything, zoom out, remove the noise, and most importantly, expect 35% pullbacks frequently in Bitcoin. That means more in alts and buy the fucking dip if you can. Those are the rules to don't fuck this up. Understand that as we go through the presentation and you'll understand the opportunity set. Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. We have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030 It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030 Just click on the link below and start your journey now. Let's go through the everything code. The everything code is the overall thesis of my understanding of how we got to where we are today, where we're going, and how it all comes together. I've said before everything is demographics. The labor force participation rate is a representation of the demographics in the US economy. The US is better than others. Europe has worse demographics, Japan worse, China worse. But this is what drives economies, inflation, and it also drives government debt. As the population ages out, this chart is one that I'm surprised that nobody's copied from us, and is probably the single most important chart in all of macro. Government debt is a function of aging populations. It is there to paste over the cracks. If you remember, GDP growth equals population growth, plus productivity growth, plus debt growth. Debt growth is the part that is papering over GDP growth. It is filling in the cracks. It is very important that you all understand this. But as debt to GDP increases, it becomes harder and harder to figure out how to finance it. So what comes along is the use of liquidity. Now we've used Fed Net Liquidity here. We'll talk about total liquidity later. The governments have shifted, the central banks and governments have shifted from originally balance sheet use back in 2008 when everything blew up, till about draggy and just after that period. Then they started using Net Liquidity. That's when you use the Treasury General Accounts. That's when you use the reverse repo. So you're bringing in the private sector into this and the government balance sheet, not just the central bank balance sheet. In recent times, they've moved beyond that to use total liquidity, which includes the banking sector. But basically, all liquidity is there, is to service the government debt. This chart is incredibly important for you to understand. So zooming in where we are today, you can see that US total liquidity, so that includes the banking sector now, which is the new mechanism by which they're absorbing the debts and mandating banks to hold more government bonds. You can see it follows this debt to GDP chart.