**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
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**Michael Zuber** (0:31)
Did you hear? Uber just announced that they are going to be cutting 10% of their staff.
A message from their CEO. They are going to move simpler and faster. What does this mean? Means middle management gonzo. Folks, companies like Uber, when they do this 10% layoff, they are looking to get flatter, not have so many managers managing managers. So again, my question for you is, who is next, right? We went through a cycle where Amazon, Google, Facebook, all had pretty significant layoffs. But now we're back at it. You know, is Uber just the first of many, or is Uber just the last one to do it? So again, let me know in the comments below. Do you think there might be some other layoffs coming? We did get our second of three jobs numbers. Again, remember we got Joltz Report job openings yesterday. They were slightly worse than expected, but nothing earth shattering. Today we got ADP, or sometimes referred to as private payrolls. Private payrolls last month was revised up. Yes, I said up slightly to 46,000. I think it was 43,000 the month before, so 46 The estimate was for some small growth to 47 However, it was very disappointing at 38,000.
We dug into the numbers, and it looks like we definitely have some sectors of the economy humming, and others are pulling back. Let's talk about where jobs are leaving. Business services. You could think IT, for example. Also, manufacturing.
Sorry if I didn't say business services lost 16,000. Manufacturing lost 17,000. That is not good. Again, we were looking for the manufacturing economy to kind of take us out of this stagflation, low growth environment. But according to these numbers, manufacturing actually shed 17,000 jobs. Well, who's adding jobs? Who's growing? Education and health services, likely always the one with the most growth.
Pretty significant jump there. Leisure and hospitality, 16,000. And construction, construction had 12,000 in growth. Inside the private payrolls, they also break down the numbers. Who's hiring small companies or big companies? This go around, not sure if it's surprising to you, but it's the big boys. If you have over 500 employees, you are considered a big company. And you had, you added 34,000 jobs of the 38 So what's that, like, I don't know, 78% or no, 88%, something like that.
If you are under 50, so you are a small company, you only added 3000 jobs. And thus, between that, between 50 and 500, you added 1000, making the 38,000. So again, the big number is Friday. There are really a couple of things we're gonna be looking at. One is the growth in jobs or shrinkage, but also the unemployment rate. Again, last month, we had negative job growth and the unemployment rate fell because of the participation rate. Morgan's, or I'm sorry, JP. Morgan, JP. Morgan out with a jobs story today saying that the US economy sweet spot, this again refers to the BLS or Friday's numbers, is between 30 and 70K. That's kind of like Goldilocks, right?
That's what they want. If it's too strong, the economy may be overheating, and obviously if it's too low, we risk stagflation. So pretty interesting there. It's Wednesday, so we got an update on mortgage applications and little surprising, I think, given that mortgage rates are at a 52-week high or thereabouts. Mortgage refi down 1% week on week, down 19% year on year. That's not the shocking one. Again, makes total sense, right? Interest rates are 52-week high. Who the heck is refiing? But purchases, this one shocked me a little. Purchases up 2% week on week, and down 0.2 year on year. So again, folks, likely a lot of investors are taking the opportunity to find deals in this environment, which is pretty interesting. I do want to shout out one person who joined school yesterday. Again, folks, September 2nd, you've only got four months left in the year. Lots of you have big goals and big dreams, and I'm trying to give you the best platform out there. Join school, get around other wealth builders, and see what the excitement is all about. So shout out Anand for joining. Thank you for that. Make sure you introduce yourself. We are getting more Fed speak. This one from John Williams. Rising long-term bond rates reflect strong US economy.
Yeah, I'm not buying it. I'm really not. Higher rates are not because the US economy is strong. Higher rates is because we have a $40 trillion deficit and a $2 trillion deficit quarter, and just complete nonsense. And oh, by the way, we have inflation and oil heading back up. I think it's 92 or something. So no, John, I don't know if you had too many beers or whatnot when you said that. But higher rates are not because the US economy is cooking, at least not in my opinion.
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