Trade Policy and U.S. Geopolitical Strategy

**Mike Green** (0:01)
Welcome to The Asia Chessboard, the podcast that examines geopolitical dynamics in Asia and takes an inside look at the making of grand strategy. I'm Mike Green of the United States Studies Centre in Sydney and the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Welcome back to the Asia Chessboard. I'm Mike Green. Delighted to have joining us Barbara Weisel, non-resident scholar in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. She built a career serving in the US. Trade Representative's Office for 23 years. She left as the Assistant US. Trade Rep for Southeast Asia in October 2017 So she had a hand in some of the key trade agreements. When we had a trade policy, we'll talk about if it will ever come back in a minute, but one of the real Jedi masters of trade in Washington, who will help us unpack exactly what the heck is going on right now. So Barbara, thanks. Great to have you.

**Barbara Weisel** (0:57)
Great to be here.

**Mike Green** (0:58)
So you had a career in different aspects of policy in Asia, but the last 23 years was in the front ranks trade negotiations, which is very different. It's combative, it's lawyers, lots of lawyers, heavy, heavy congressional interest, trying to herd the cats of domestic constituents around trade agreements. Was it a bit of a shock to get into that world from other aspects of engagement with the region, or did you just love it and dive right in?

**Barbara Weisel** (1:27)
I did love it, but it was difficult. It is quite different than other areas of policy. You're sitting across the table with trade partners, oftentimes without as much experience as the people you're sitting across the table from. That can be very intimidating. But I think over time, you watch your colleagues and you watch your counterparts, and you learn how to negotiate, and you learn how to get comfortable in your own skin as a negotiator. That takes time, but I really loved it from the beginning.

**Mike Green** (2:00)
Our mutual friend, Wendy Cutler, when she was doing trade negotiations with Korea, had combative, tough encounters, but became a celebrity and then best friends with some of her adversaries. Was that your experience doing TPP and other negotiations? Do you butt heads in the room and then go on to become friends and colleagues, or is this long life enemies when you do these trade negotiations?

**Barbara Weisel** (2:24)
For the most part, I think that you are friends and partners, because when you go into a negotiation, you are fighting hard for your position, for your country's objectives, but you also are looking for win-win outcomes, and that requires working together with your partners, understanding where they are coming from, and working together to find solutions. And in the process of doing that, you become quite close. And I think even today, after many years since I have left USTR, I am still in very close touch with many of my former colleagues.

**Mike Green** (3:00)
And you had a key role in negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and I wanted to ask your sort of retrospective thoughts. Was it a foregone conclusion that TPP would not happen in the United States, that the US would withdraw? In 2016, in the campaign, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump said they would pull out. But I think most people knew that as Secretary of State, Clinton had been a big promoter of TPP as a strategic play in the region. Some people say that it was never going to happen, that the consensus behind free trade and trade negotiations had collapsed, essentially. My sense is it was a much nearer run thing in a few different personalities, different election outcome. We may well have been in TPP or CPTPP right now. So sort of rewinding almost a decade, what happened? And was it structural and forwarding? Do you think it was bad luck or how would you explain it?

**Barbara Weisel** (3:50)
I mean, I agree with you that I believe and will never know that if Hillary Clinton had been elected president, she would have wanted to negotiate certain specific changes to the agreement. But I think she understood the geopolitical and strategic significance of the agreement and would have found a way to stay in and to build support. Again, we'll never know whether that's the case, but that is my belief. When President Trump was elected, we did think that there was some possibility that there would be a chance to discuss with the incoming administration what their concerns about the agreement were and to hear what kinds of changes might satisfy them. You know, I think an interesting thing to recall is when we launched TPP, it was actually in the Bush administration in 2008