Tom Lee's Case for S&P 8,000 Has One Big Catch

**Scott Galloway** (0:01)
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**Scott Galloway** (1:26)
Today's number 70 That's the percentage increase in US adults who listen to Podcast Weekly compared to 2022 Ed, I've had several people tell me that Michael Symbolis, the chief investment officer of JP Morgan, put in a note, a research note, that he's upset about a vulgar joke I made at the beginning of the podcast that he was a guest on. Michael, we apologize.
So we are going to have the Michael Symbolis dad joke. And that is until I hear from you and that you have accepted my apology, I'm just going to do dad jokes. Okay, so you ready, Ed?

**Ed Elson** (2:05)
Yeah, Michael Symbolis dad joke, let's hear it.

**Scott Galloway** (2:07)
What do you call a fake noodle?

**Ed Elson** (2:08)
What?

**Scott Galloway** (2:09)
An impasta.
Michael, we love you. Don't be angry at us. Reach out.

**Ed Elson** (2:27)
Reach out.

**Scott Galloway** (2:28)
Forgiveness is a wonderful thing, Michael.

**Ed Elson** (2:30)
I love it. Should we get into our talk today? We have a very interesting conversation with Tom Lee.

**Scott Galloway** (2:35)
One of our favorites, the what could go right. Tom Lee, I love Tom.

**Ed Elson** (2:39)
Let's get into it.
At the end of last year, one guest came on the show and laid out a notably bullish case for 2026 Fast forward to today, and the US stock market has indeed performed very well, up nearly 9% year to date. But a number of big question marks still loom over the market. So now that the first half of the year is in the books, we wanted to check back in with that guest and find out, is he still bullish, what are investors underestimating, and where are markets headed for the second half? So to find out all of this, we are speaking with Tom Lee, co-founder, managing partner, and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Tom, great to have you on the show.
We wanted to get your H1 review, and then your kind of outlook for H2, just to sort of set the stage here. We've got the S&P up nearly 9 percent in the first half, the Dow up 8 percent, the NASDAQ up 11 percent. There are certainly some winners and losers among them. You look at the Mag 7, Big Tech, which has been kind of punished so far this year. Also crypto, which we will get into in a moment. But let's just start with your reflections on the first half of the year so far.

**Tom Lee** (3:59)
2026 is tracking to be the fourth year of double-digit gains. It may surprise viewers, but when markets post three years of strong gains, which we've seen 2023, 2024, 2025, the fourth year actually tends to be pretty solid. That was one reason we were constructive.
At the start of this year, the thought was that the earnings could be the driver of the markets. And that's been the case because at the start of this year, 2027 S&P earnings consensus and very similar to ours was $350.
And now it's currently $400. So it's risen by $50.
And the PE on 2027 earnings was at 19.4 at the start of the year. It's now at 18.4. So the stock market, which might surprise people, has actually gotten cheaper now than it was in January, even though we're 9% higher. I think it makes a lot of sense to be constructive here because I do think there's room for earnings to further revise higher for the US. The drivers of earnings have remained in place. You know, part of it is this AI and energy infrastructure build that's taking place. Part of it is this trend towards onshoring. And of course, there's still some residual infrastructure spending by the government. So those are all tailwinds to spending. And I think for the most part, investor sentiment has not become a bullion, but there are two sort of other factors to weigh in now that we're mid-year. One is that margin debt is much, much higher now than it was at the start of the year. In fact, it's risen 55% year over year. That is, I think, the fifth highest year over year increase ever in almost 70 years.