This Fourth Turning's Market Crash Risks Are 'Exceptional' | Neil Howe

**Neil Howe** (0:00)
What's interesting is, you have all these possible triggers of bad news, but it's the high valuation which I find incredible. This is a rare combination, right? As I said, by the time we were very late in the Depression, 1940-41, these were still Depression years. Interest rates were at record lows, we still had slight deflation. I mean, these unemployment was still barely up in the double digit. So those were low valuations when trouble hit. This is going to be trouble hitting at very high valuation.
This is exceptional, even for a fourth turning.

**Adam Taggart** (0:47)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Today's guest has long predicted that widespread systemic change would occur during the 20 teens and 2020, as America and much of the rest of the world experience a replacement of the old order and the birth pangs of a new one. All of us who have lived through this period, and especially the year 2025 that just ended, probably find it hard to argue that massive change, culturally, politically, geostrategically, and economically, is indeed now afoot. So how much more of this change still lies ahead? How disruptive will it likely be? And what kind of new system does it look like we'll have on the other side? For perspective, we've got the privilege of welcoming back to the program demographer Neil Howe, co-author of the seminal book The Fourth Turning, and author of its sequel The Fourth Turning Is Here. Neil, thanks so much for joining us today.

**Neil Howe** (1:44)
Great to be here, Adam.

**Adam Taggart** (1:45)
Thanks, Neil. Hey, first off, happy new year, happy 2026 Hope you had a great holiday season.

**Neil Howe** (1:51)
I did, no real snow up here yet, so that's about all I can be thankful for.

**Adam Taggart** (1:57)
Yeah, well, be thankful for it. I moved to Nevada since the last time we talked, and we have had our fair share of snow of late. So it's pretty, but it's also pretty cold.

**Neil Howe** (2:07)
You live in the East West, Las Vegas?

**Adam Taggart** (2:13)
Nope, I'm up in Reno, so I'm in the Northwest, literally right on the edge of the Sierras.

**Neil Howe** (2:20)
I grew up in California, and we used to hike into the high Sierra. I was from Owens in Lone Pine, that's where I grew up there. I'm very familiar. It's also where they intern the Japanese, right? Yeah, it's a beautiful area though.
I would just voluntarily move there. Ansel Adams did those wonderful black and white photos of the Sierras from the Eastern side, right? They go up like a cliff.

**Adam Taggart** (2:47)
It's gorgeous out here, and this audience has heard me gush over the past two months or so.
Every day, I find out something new and wonderful about this area. It's been such a hidden gem. So yeah, Neil, if you're ever back here, I'd love to host you, and you can take me on some of your favorite hikes.

**Neil Howe** (3:04)
We can go up to 12,000 feet together, Adam, and see, you know.

**Adam Taggart** (3:09)
I would love that. I suspect that there's probably more than a small number of people watching this who'd love to come join us on that event, too. So maybe we make a big...

**Neil Howe** (3:17)
That's a germ of an idea, you know? How does the world look from up near a glacial lake and a lot of granite?

**Adam Taggart** (3:27)
Yeah, or maybe more importantly, you know, if The Fourth Turning gets really bad, you can go hide up in the mountains with Neil Howe and Adam Taggart. There we go. All right, well, look, Neil, you... I think it's probably safe to say you're probably the most asked-for guest for 2026 amongst my audience. You know, I get people hitting me all the time, hey, get so and so and getting so and so. Your name, I think, has probably come up the most. And I think the people that are aware of your concept, The Fourth Turning, you know, have no questions that we're certainly in the thick of it right now and are very concerned slash curious to know, you know, where you think we're headed from here. I asked my audience for questions for you. Obviously, I got just, you know, buried under an avalanche of them. I'll try to get through as many of them as possible here. But I've got a few of my own. And why don't we start with one of those, which is, you know, very quickly, I'll give a 30-second description, amended any way you like.