There's A Long, Grinding Bear Market Coming | David Hay

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**David Hay** (1:00)
I still believe that in our future, I don't know when there's a long grinding bear market coming. In a market more like 1966 to 1982 or 2000 to 2013, where equities go nowhere for a very long time and then net of inflation, they actually go deeply in the red. Most people think that's impossible. I don't think it is, but it's probably not anytime soon.

**Adam Taggart** (1:32)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. The last time I interviewed today's guest was right after the stock market plunged 20% to its post-liberation day lows in April. Wall Street was stunned. As just a few months before, the market seemed unstoppable. Well, here we are just three months later, and stocks have rocketed back to new highs. The fears that panicked investors so much back in April seem completely forgotten. What's going on and what's most likely to happen from here? To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined today by David Hay, the up until recently Chief Investment Officer and Principal at Evergreen Gavekal. He now publishes daily investing commentary on his excellent Haymaker Substack. David, thanks so much for joining us today.

**David Hay** (2:19)
Thank you, Adam. Appreciate the kind comments.

**Adam Taggart** (2:22)
They're very well deserved. I'm just speaking the truth. David, you're one of those guys that when it's been too long since you've been on the channel, the e-mails and comments start coming. When's David coming back on? Hopefully, we're going to please a lot of people today. I also want to thank you because you always make my job easy for me, but you've done it again this time by preparing a wonderful chart deck that you're about to walk us through. I don't really want to stand too far in between us and your excellent charts there.
I really got to chuckle out of your cover slide here on this thing. So I'll let you get right to it.

**David Hay** (2:59)
I'll get it up here.

**Adam Taggart** (3:01)
Yeah. But I love how you titled it. Maybe they really do ring a bell at the top. So let's-

**David Hay** (3:07)
That's the one you want, right?

**Adam Taggart** (3:09)
Let's start jumping right in here. Exactly. Yeah.

**David Hay** (3:12)
So Jim Cramer is a bit known for being a wrong way Corrigan, putting it mildly. And he's obviously all smiles here back on July 11th. And you can say the market's kept creeping higher since that time. But of course, back in April, when we last spoke, he was semi-suicidal. And he's almost bipolar when it comes to his market emotions. And so he's in some ways kind of a valuable contrary indicator in my view, not only with the market, but with individual equities. So anyway, yeah, and it is, since you brought it up, I remember that, in fact, I went back and looked at the transcript of when we spoke because it was such a chaotic time. And my point was that there were tremendously oversold readings, which we'll discuss a little bit coming up here in the market section. And I thought that we could get a powerful rally and said that bear market rallies tend to be the most powerful. But I was really only half right because this, you got to say this isn't just a bear market rally. When you go to a new all time high, it's more than that. So and I think, you know, to give credit where credit is due, how about our friend Darius Dale, who I know he just had on with Luke Grohman. So a little plug for those two brilliant people in one podcast. But Darius was quite bearish, as you know. He'd switched from bullish to bearish before the market really did the meltdown and then flip back to bullish. And he's been, you know, I think he was very correct in recognizing some of these changes that we're going to see coming up here in a couple of slides. So, you know, I don't want to act like I was carnatic magnificent, maybe just semi-magnificent.