The New Geo-Political Era Is Changing EVERYTHING...But Wall Street Is BLIND To It | Michael Every

**Michael Every** (0:00)
People are so exhausted with the flurry of headlines coming through, and just how wild some of them are. And they're having so much difficulty computing just how big these changes could be fundamentally, that they're switching off. And they're literally saying, I'm not even going to try and trade this anymore. Until I see it in front of me, until I've got that on my desk, literally as a fact, I cannot ignore, I'm not going to price for that in terms of the asset I'm looking at. So we are not, I think, able to look at those market metrics, which I was just referring to, and say, well, you know, they're still saying everything's okay. So this may just be noise. The market itself in general is lagging enormously here, and it's not going to move. And then it will move dramatically when it finally realizes, yep, this is real and not just headlines.

**Adam Taggart** (0:56)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. When today's guest was last on this program back in November, he predicted we'd see continued momentum geopolitically, away from globalization and towards mercantilism and protectionism. That's proven to be the case worldwide, and particularly so for the US, where Donald Trump's America First agenda has kicked off at warp speed, shocking citizens, allies and enemies alike with its violent and swift disruption of what was business as usual just a month ago. How is this wave of nationalism around the world likely to impact the global economy? What are the biggest opportunities that may open up for investors, and what are its biggest risks? To discuss, we're fortunate to be able to spend the next hour with Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank, who joins us from Thailand. Michael, thanks so much for taking time out of your busy morning to join us.

**Michael Every** (1:52)
It's always a pleasure to speak with you, Adam.

**Adam Taggart** (1:54)
Well, Michael, right back at you. I got so many great comments after the last time that you came on in November. You really opened up a lot of people's eyes towards your way of thinking of the world. And let me just give credit where credit is due. Let's have you take a victory lap right now, Michael, because you have been predicting this mercantilist, nationalist playbook, a return to it for a long, long time.
And if anybody doubted you, I don't think there are many doubters left post the first 30 days of the new Trump administration.

**Michael Every** (2:28)
Well, thank you very much. I mean, obviously, there's always some kind of satisfaction in getting that professional vindication. But now we all have to unpack what it actually means as it's happening and keep abreast of it. And wow, is that a tiring process, given the speed at which this is happening, because it reminds me of an old phrase from Lenin, who I've quoted before in different contexts, which is, there are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen. And nowadays, it's kind of minutes where decades seem to happen. So it's exhausting. And actually, as an adjunct to that, I want to make one other point very early on. That when we're talking about where the opportunities are, we have to, on one level, understand what's happening and unpack it and look at the fundamentals and all the different directions it could go. And I'm looking forward to doing that with you now. And on the other, we have to look at markets, obviously, because that's what we're talking about too. And yet, within those markets, let's be blunt, while people have kind of woken up to what's going on, the vast majority don't do geopolitics. Now, they're very good at what they do. They have lots of kind of standard metrics that they look at, that have worked really, really well for an entire generation. But we're now having a generational breakdown. And as a result, some of those people are actually having their own breakdown and they're deep in denial. There are lots and lots of reports out there in market space, which are just not mentioning any of this or mentioning it and just saying the word geopolitics, which I think I've joked to you before is like going to see your doctor and you say, what's wrong with me? I've got this, this, this problem. And he says, biology.
It doesn't actually explain to you what's happening or what you need to do or what the treatment is. Right. And why that's important is this. I know for a fact, because I've spoken to a few people on different trading floors, not just my own recently, people are so exhausted with the flurry of headlines coming through and just how wild some of them are. And they're having so much difficulty computing just how big these changes could be fundamentally that they're switching off. And they're literally saying, I'm not even going to try and trade this anymore until I see it in front of me. Until I've got that on my desk, literally as a fact, I cannot ignore, I'm not going to price for that in terms of the asset I'm looking at. So we are not, I think, able to look at those market metrics, which I was just referring to, and say, well, you know, they're still saying everything's okay. So this may just be noise. The market itself in general is lagging enormously here. And it's not going to move. And then it will move dramatically when it finally realizes, yep, this is real and not just headlines.