The Most Bullish Thing About Bitcoin | Alex Thorn

**Alex Thorn** (0:02)
If you have assets that you like to possess yourself, you should have Bitcoin, because it is money that they can't take from you. It is money that you can send anywhere in the world at any time. Really, what's likely to happen, there will be an AI that's too powerful to be public.
And if China is going to give it to their people, and we're not going to give it to ours, of course, that disadvantages us. And I bet you would see the US force China to close theirs off too. So much debt being issued to pay for all the data centers, not just here, but worldwide. I think you're going to see substantial, like the fiscal impulse is going to become substantial. You're going to hear about the debasement story is going to come back. And all of a sudden, you're going to look at Bitcoin, it's going to be at like 90K, and everyone's going to be like, oh no, I need Bitcoin because of the storm. And all of a sudden, it's just everybody remembers why they liked Bitcoin in the first place, and then bam, it's no longer in a bear market. It's sort of just chugging along.

**Danny Knowles** (0:51)
If I had to ask you, would the Bitcoin price be higher if Saylor had never bought Bitcoin? What do you think the answer would be?

**Alex Thorn** (1:00)
How's it going, man? I'm really good, man. Good to see you in New York.

**Danny Knowles** (1:02)
Good to see you. I got in 23 hours late, but I'm here.

**Alex Thorn** (1:05)
I can't believe it. I was shocked.

**Danny Knowles** (1:08)
What was the like?

**Alex Thorn** (1:09)
23-hour flight delay.

**Danny Knowles** (1:10)
Was there a, I saw there was a hurricane in New Jersey yesterday.

**Alex Thorn** (1:14)
Yeah, I guess there was yesterday. I only caught a glimpse of it from the office, but I guess there was a tornado warning. There was like a thunderstorm that rolled through.

**Danny Knowles** (1:22)
To be fair, I'd rather not be in a plane in a hurricane.

**Alex Thorn** (1:24)
That's true.

**Danny Knowles** (1:26)
What's going on?

**Alex Thorn** (1:28)
I mean, it's all like AI and Clarity Act, and just right now in this summer doldrums market that we're in.

**Danny Knowles** (1:38)
Summer doldrums, bottom of the bear market.

**Alex Thorn** (1:40)
We're begging folks in Washington to bust their butts on our behalf, and it's like a 97-degree swamp down there. We're like, please get it done in the last minute.
I would say it's been an exciting summer, even though the market has been quite boring, I would say, overall. I think it's true in both equity. I don't know, maybe boring's not the right word, but it's not a particularly bullish moment we find ourselves in for Bitcoin or for equities, really. You know, it's like ebbs and flows. It's always exciting. It's the never-ending saga.

**Danny Knowles** (2:14)
So I spend no time in the data, but all I have is vibes. And when you've been in Bitcoin a bit, vibes kind of work. Oh, yeah. And I do feel like we must be close to the bottom.

**Alex Thorn** (2:23)
Yeah, I do too.
I put out a report in June that said I looked at the metrics that consistently topped, peaked, spiked at other prior tops and consistently bottomed at other prior bottoms. So I have all these metrics. I basically set cloud code to say, go look in my own database, which by the way, is what I would recommend. You don't get a lot of hallucinations when you put binding constraints on the AI to only use the data you give it, right?

**Danny Knowles** (2:53)
But what data is that?

**Alex Thorn** (2:55)
So in this case, it's all derived Bitcoin metrics. So everything, if you think of coin metrics and Glassnode, like MBRV and SOPR and NuPol and HODL wave data and Seller data, like on-chain movements.

**Danny Knowles** (3:07)
This is Thorn on-chain.

**Alex Thorn** (3:08)
Yes, literally. Mayor multiple, moving averages, all that type of stuff.
So I created a catalog of which ones reliably mark tops and bottoms. And then of course, we go and we look at which of those did the topping indicators hit in October or in and around that top? Have the bottoming indicators hit now?
And interestingly, of course, we didn't, a lot of the topping indicators didn't hit. Some of them hit well before, like after the election and never recovered again. In a way, almost like a dampening of the amplitude of the top. And part of my thesis is like that may also cap the downside, because the prior bear market bottoms are all like 75 to 85% down. We've not gotten that far and I really don't think we will.