The Market Is Over-Extended, Over-Bought & Over-Leveraged | Lance Roberts

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**Lance Roberts** (1:00)
This is why going into next year, I'm a bit more concerned about a pick up in volatility, potentially lower returns, because you just have a very extended and overbought market. Everybody's in the pool. If somebody gets out of the pool, you're going to potentially get a stampede of people getting out of the pool. All they got to do is get out and y'all shark and everybody comes out, right? We have so much leverage in the markets, that at some point, if something triggers a sell-off, you're going to get a decent correction and a pullback to the four-year moving average is not uncommon. We've kept for the last 15 years, we've tested that four-year moving average numerous times. So a retest, if you were going to do it today, said Lance, where's the four-year moving average? That's at $49.90 right now.

**Adam Taggart** (1:55)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money, I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you back for a special Thanksgiving week edition of our weekly Market Recap. I'm joined as usual by the, what do you want to call this, the delicatessenary portfolio manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how are you doing?

**Lance Roberts** (2:14)
I'm good, I'm stuffed more than the turkey this year, so yeah.

**Adam Taggart** (2:17)
Well, I picked that word, delicatessenary, because as I understand it, you actually don't do turkey.

**SPEAKER_4** (2:23)
No.

**Adam Taggart** (2:24)
You're Texan, you do all sorts of meats, briskets, sides of beef. How was it all?

**Lance Roberts** (2:30)
It was great. It's interesting.
There's probably 20, 25 people that all get together for Thanksgiving, and probably I think my wife is the only one that actually eats any turkey, so we just order a little turkey breast for her and have it shipped to the house. Then, yeah, everybody else is eating briskets. I mean, we're Texans, so it's brisket and sausage and barbecued chickens and mashed potatoes and all kinds of stuff. Yeah. It's anything but a traditional Thanksgiving.

**Adam Taggart** (3:01)
It all sounds good, but I'm guessing, yeah, your family's probably full up on turkey because they live with a turkey for the full year round, right?

**Lance Roberts** (3:07)
For the most part of the year, yeah, they're pretty much fed up.

**Adam Taggart** (3:12)
We had fun. Obviously, folks, I'm not in my studio. I'm on the road. We're actually back in California. Had Thanksgiving with both our kids, which was great, but also with my whole wife's extended family and also some good friends of theirs. The friends own a vineyard up in the Alexandra Valley, up in Healdsburg, if anybody who's watching knows where that is, but it's up here in Sonoma County. Very, very beautiful, very, very rustic in a very charming way. But it was funny because it turned into Thanksgiving, everyone's going to remember because the kind of the dad who was hosting, his one job was to go pick up the turkeys and he got there too late. So with like an hour and a half to go before everybody was arriving, there was a mad scramble to come up with a turkey replacement.
Yeah, she sent him out. He found a place where he could get these cooked chicken. So we have a lot of chicken for Thanksgiving.
And she told him to get 10 half-chickens and he ended up getting, unbeknownst to him, full chickens. Plus he got an additional four more just to be safe. So we had 14 full chickens. It was like a party favorite. Everybody had chicken to take home.

**Lance Roberts** (4:29)
You can never have too much. The best thing about Thanksgiving is the leftovers.

**Adam Taggart** (4:33)
Right, right. So everyone here will be having leftovers forever. But it was a great time. I hope everybody watching had a wonderful Thanksgiving. With you and your families. If you're watching internationally, I still hope you had a good time with family this week. And obviously, as Americans, we're sending you all of our good Thanksgiving wishes. All right, Lance. Well, look, as we said last week, we would meet today just to give folks an update on the abbreviated week.