The Market Is At A "Very Important Crossroads". Which Way Will It Break? | Lance Roberts

**Lance Roberts** (0:00)
We're at a very important crossroads where the market needs to decide what it's going to do. Set all the narratives aside. The market just needs to decide what it wants to do, and whichever way it breaks out, trade that trend.

**Adam Taggart** (0:20)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you here at the end of the week for another weekly Market Recap featuring my good friend, the Fraternal Portfolio Manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how are you doing?

**Lance Roberts** (0:33)
I've been as older. The older I get, the more fraternal I feel.

**Adam Taggart** (0:36)
Thanks. Although I said fraternal for a few reasons. One, because I've just spent the week with my brothers. I had a rare week away from the computer. It's been wonderful. We get to end today's video actually a little bit early because I've got to take one of them to the airport. But also Lance, because I think of you as a brother.

**Lance Roberts** (0:54)
I appreciate that. Same goes for me.

**Adam Taggart** (0:56)
Thanks. I don't like my brothers. It's okay.

**Lance Roberts** (0:59)
I don't like them.

**Adam Taggart** (1:00)
You can understand why.

**Lance Roberts** (1:02)
I haven't spoken to my real brother in 25 years, so there you go.

**Adam Taggart** (1:06)
Well, there's probably a story there we'll get into at some point. No, that story doesn't need to be told.
All right. Well, look, so folks, we're going to keep today condensed and pretty on track. Looking at the markets, Lance, I've been starting to hear in my mind the talking head song Road to Nowhere, where the markets trading kind of as we speak, is where it was trading before Halloween of last year, and we're just about in March now here in 2026 So it really has gone already much nowhere in the past number of months. So a couple of questions for you, Lance. Last week, we talked about how the market could be sort of healing here, positioning it to consolidating and positioning itself for a run higher. Curious to hear if you still think that way, and what we have seen certainly so far this year is capital rotation out of the hyperscalers and the software companies into more value plays. It's been a growth to value transfer. When we talked last week, you were beginning to say, hey, especially with some of the software companies, like the baby's getting tossed out with the bathwater, there may be a good opportunity to start building positions in these beaten down companies and wait for capital to then re-rotate back into growth from value. Do you still have those sort of same perspectives, or has anything changed in the past week?

**Lance Roberts** (2:39)
No, nothing's changed. Timing is always going to be the hard part, right? So trying to get these rotations exactly perfect, they're going to be difficult. So if you're going to try to play areas of the market that are under a lot of pressure, just be careful that you're going to have to maybe sit with them for a while and there's going to be dead money for a bit until the market actually starts to realize that a lot of these narratives that are out there, that are kind of driving this current environment, are not valid. And when you start looking at it and when the market starts looking back for where there's a margin of safety, they're going to start looking for companies that have really good valuations and a good moat and a good margin of safety. And a lot of those companies reside in that tech space right now that have been particularly beaten up.

**Adam Taggart** (3:30)
Okay, so maybe we can, we'll do some of the charts in a bit. Maybe you can show us on the chart kind of where capital is still flowing right now and where it isn't.
But let me ask you this, and maybe we should just go to the TA and kind of get that over with today. Technically, I'm doing this from memory here, but we had had a breakdown below a couple of daily moving averages. And we were waiting to see if the markets could recover and bounce above them, or if they were going to start acting as resistance. I don't think we've broken back above them, correct?

**Lance Roberts** (4:11)
No, no. Well, actually, we did. So this was a really interesting week overall. And I wrote about this in this weekend's newsletter that's coming up. It's called, is the market topping or not? Because there's certainly some indications that this market could be in a topping process. And so we want to certainly be aware of that. But if you look back at this week, we opened the week lower on Monday over these kind of AI concerns issues. And then the market rallied back over the next three days. And we got, we broke, broke, got up, we came right off the 100-day moving average, tested that support, came right off that support level that we've been doing now really ever since last April, broke above the 50 and the 20-day moving average. So that was actually looking pretty good. And then on Thursday and Friday, we reversed all that. We're back down to the 100-day moving average. So we've not gone anywhere this week. So, you know, from a, from a trading standpoint, it's been a bit frustrating if you're a long and S&P index fund or whatever. But there's just been this kind of continued, this continued kind of consolidation. And every time we rally back up to these resistance levels, we fail and come back down and test support. Now, the good news is that buyers keep stepping in, and right at the 100-day moving average, we get down there, buyers step in and start buying the market. So that's okay. We haven't broken. Now, if we break the 100-day moving average, which is this black line, then potentially we've got kind of reversal down to maybe those November lows, potentially, which would be around 65, 50-ish, somewhere around there on the S&P.