The Lebanon Trap - with Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal

**Dan Senor** (0:02)
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**Nadav Eyal** (0:46)
You are listening to an Ark Media podcast.
At the end of the day, the big picture is this. Israel doesn't know how to solve the Hezbollah problem right now in Lebanon. It doesn't know how to do that. And what's really happening is that Iran has managed to use Lebanon as part of this negotiations with the United States. So it's absolutely on the record that the negotiations with Iran as to the agreement on nuclear issues, on Hormuz, are connected to what Israel is doing in Lebanon. And that is not something that Israel wanted to begin with.

**Amit Segal** (1:24)
When Hezbollah started firing at Israel in order to protect Iran, it caused a heavy damage for the image of Netanyahu. Because now without the Lebanon front marked as done deal, all of a sudden question arises, is this war ever going to end? Voters might say, if you have failed to actually bring security after two and a half years, almost three years, and bearing in mind, of course, October 7th, why would we elect you?

**Dan Senor** (2:06)
It's 7 a.m. on Wednesday, June 3rd here in New York City. It's 2 p.m. on Wednesday, June 3rd in Israel.
There are two versions of what happened on Monday as it relates to the war in Lebanon. There's a version that looks like progress. Donald Trump announced a ceasefire. Hezbollah committed to stop firing rockets into Israel. Israel committed to stop striking Beirut. New talks between Israeli and Lebanese delegations opened in Washington yesterday. If you squint, you can see the outline of a diplomatic solution taking shape. One that might eventually produce something durable. And then there is another version. In that version, Israel has been fighting in southern Lebanon for months, absorbing daily casualties from drones, which the IDF hasn't found a military answer to. Hezbollah is degraded but intact, targeting Israel's northern communities on a daily basis. The IDF has seized the strategic Balfour castle, but there's no clear endpoint to the campaign and no credible mechanism to disarm the organization that started the war on Israel's northern front. The ceasefire announced last night doesn't touch any of that. The ground fighting continues and the strategic problem remains unsolved. Both versions are true.
That's what makes this moment so difficult to read. What we know is this, President Trump is pushing hard for a Lebanon deal, hard enough that he reportedly called Netanyahu this week, screaming, calling the Prime Minister, Effing crazy, which President Trump has since confirmed. Layered on top of all this is Iran. Tehran has successfully linked the Lebanon war to the nuclear negotiations, conditioning any agreement on a sustainable ceasefire there. Which means that whatever Israel decides to do in southern Lebanon is no longer just a Lebanon decision. It feeds directly into the most consequential strategic question Israel faces. What kind of Iran deal? If any, emerges from the current round of talks and what Israel's position looks like the morning after it's signed. With all these pressure points bearing down simultaneously, Trump, Iran, the Gulf states, the IDF's daily casualty count in southern Lebanon, and of course the upcoming elections, what will Prime Minister Netanyahu actually do?
What are the real constraints on his decision making? And what are the geopolitical and security consequences for Israel, depending on which path he takes? With me to unpack all of this is Ark Media contributor and senior analyst for Yediut Achranot, Nadav Eyal, and Ark Media contributor and senior analyst for Channel 12 in Israel, Amit Segal. Amit, Nadav, thanks for coming back on so soon.

**Nadav Eyal** (4:46)
Thank you for having us.

**Dan Senor** (4:47)
Okay, Amit, I want to start with what was reported last night on Channel 12, a series of conversations between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu that began with a coordinated tactical threat against Hezbollah and devolved to, from what we understand, to Trump reportedly screaming at Netanyahu. So tell us this story.

**Amit Segal** (5:08)
So there is no dispute that this conversation was very tense and President Trump has just confirmed the details in the Axios report, according to which he yelled at Prime Minister Netanyahu, you are effing crazy, I saved you from jail. By the way, no one knows if he meant the Israeli jail, through pushing President Herzog to pardon Netanyahu, or the jail in Hague in the International Criminal Court. This was by far the most tense conversation that the two gentlemen have held since 2016, when President Trump got elected. Here is the thing, for President Trump, Lebanon is a collateral damage.