The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next

**Steven Bartlett** (0:00)
You've been running simulations on a war with Iran.

**Robert Pape** (0:02)
Yep, every strategy for 20 years, and it's laying out right now. So I can tell you that we are losing control of the situation. Like, we don't know where that nuclear material is. But they have the material for 16 nuclear bombs. And we've given them every incentive to develop them.

**Steven Bartlett** (0:21)
Professor Robert Pape might be the single most important, credible person we all need to listen to right now.

**Robert Pape** (0:27)
The supreme leader that we took out was against nuclear weapons. The new supreme leader, and he's way more aggressive.

**Steven Bartlett** (0:34)
He's advised two decades of presidents in the White House.

**Robert Pape** (0:37)
President Trump is really stuck, but he thrives in chaos.

**Steven Bartlett** (0:41)
And spent 30 years building the curriculum that trains the Air Force for the exact type of war that's taking place now in Iran. And one of the most mind-blowing things I've learned is that there are three stages to this conflict. Unfortunately, Professor Robert Pape, who has two decades of being correct with his predictions, gives a 75% chance that Trump is about to escalate to stage three. In this episode, we're going to explain exactly what this means. Just give me 30 seconds of your time. Two things I wanted to say. The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week. It means the world to all of us. And this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place. But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started. And if you enjoy what we do here, please join the 24% of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app. Here's a promise I'm going to make to you. I'm going to do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can, now and into the future. We're going to deliver the guests that you want me to speak to and we're going to continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show. Thank you.
Professor Robert Pape, what the hell is going on in the world? Now I should ask first, who are you and what have you spent the last several decades of your life studying and doing and how does that relate to what's happening in the world right now?

**Robert Pape** (2:11)
We are going through a crisis, more very intense right now, but it's a crisis that we have been through before. 20 years ago with the Iraq War, even before that we saw the bombing of Qadhafi, we saw the reactions there. Now I have been studying military strategy, air power, international terrorism, now terrorism inside the United States and also political violence in the United States that's not related to particular groups. So I've been studying political violence for 40 years.

**Steven Bartlett** (2:44)
What is the headline that people need to be aware of when you've looked at 30 years of these types of wars?

**Robert Pape** (2:50)
That bombs don't just hit targets, they change politics.

**Steven Bartlett** (2:54)
What does that mean?

**Robert Pape** (2:55)
That means that before the bombs fall, and even as the bombs are falling now, we tend to focus on the tactical success of bombing. We tend to ask, did the bombs hit the targets? And it's, with the smart bomb age, it's almost mesmerizing. They hit the target and destroy the target. Crater built, crater dirt, crater concrete, destroy buildings, 90% of the time. The problem is wars are not just about the hardware. They're not just about the military operation of putting a bomb on a target. They're about politics. And when the bombs start to fall, the politics in both the target, the enemy, change. And the politics in the attacker, the initiator, change. And that threshold is the beginning of what I'm calling the escalation trap. Because you get at stage one, tactical success often. What's missing here is the next consideration, which is politics.

**Steven Bartlett** (4:01)
Who have you advised? And at what level have you advised them on strategy, war, et cetera, et cetera?

**Robert Pape** (4:07)
So in the, when I finished my PhD, right away we started to fight the first Gulf War, which was an all air power war. And I found my work from the 1980s suddenly more relevant than ever. I was in the Washington Post, USA Today, Frontline, designing the stories because we didn't have the talking military heads at the time. And then I get a call from the US. Air Force. And they're asking me to come in and help not just teach, but to build the curriculum. Then what happens as time goes on, I end up advising every White House from 2001 to 2024, including the first Trump White House.