The Final Stage Of The Bitcoin Bear Market | Joe Consorti

**Joe Consorti** (0:02)
The Fed Cannot Stop Printing Money Global central banks cannot stop printing money out of thin air, and not just printing money, but printing money at an accelerating pace. That is why Bitcoin exists. It is an absolutely scarce monetary asset that has absorbed and will continue to absorb the excess liquidity, the excess money printing that global central banks just can't stop printing. As long as central banks keep printing money, Bitcoin's value prop remains unchanged, and a 50% drawdown isn't something that should scare you, it should be viewed as an opportunity and nothing more. The global M2, the global money supply, actually is expanding at its fastest rate since 2021 right now for the asset owners, right? So the asset owners benefit massively as a result of inflation. It's why the Federal Reserve exists, to enrich those who own assets and to control the money, to control you.
Whereas those who don't own assets don't benefit. Despite the economy seemingly, from the outside looking in, doing okay, and the moment we reach a tipping point where because of these delinquencies, the consumer cannot afford to borrow their way into living anymore, then that's the point at which you get a recession.

**Danny Knowles** (1:00)
Dude, we have got a lot to talk about today.
I don't even know where we start. Do we start with everything that's happened with Saylor and Stretch? Do we start with Bitcoin price sat under 60K, breaking through the power law? Where do you want to start?

**Joe Consorti** (1:14)
My goodness, I think we start with the Bitcoin price and then we lead into Saylor. I think Saylor is probably what everybody's here for. I know you had Adam Livingston on your show recently. He's fantastic when it comes to this stuff.
Look, what I'll do first is I'll call back to in January when I was last on the show, and I said Bitcoin was going to go to 40k. When I said that, I didn't believe it myself.
For the most part, I believed it, but part of me didn't want to believe it, that Bitcoin could go that low, but every sign was pointing in that direction, just from a percentage perspective. Purely the last cycle, we had about a 78% drawdown. This cycle, a 75-ish percent drawdown would mean about $40,000 Bitcoin, if not a little bit lower. And since we recorded, we're down from, I think, the 70s, high 70s, to 58k. And as you mentioned, we just broke through the floor. I believe we have officially closed under it as of recording. If not, we definitely will close under it by the time the show goes live underneath the power law floor, which is a floor that is held for Bitcoin's entire price history. Now, Giovanni Sant'Estasi, the astrophysicist who originally discovered that Bitcoin had a strong power law relationship, actually went out and said that the floor model doesn't really matter all that much. It's most of the ceiling model and the median to look out for. But regardless, psychological, exactly. Yeah. And for me, from a psychological perspective, you got to wonder like people looking at that, they're going to say, wow, yet another Bitcoin model broken, yet another sacred cow slain, if you will. We sort of get these every single cycle. Last cycle, it was Bitcoin can't dip below the prior cycle's all time high. We killed that one. This cycle, it was, oh, the four year cycle is dead because we made a new low in February. We killed that one or we're on the way to killing that one as Bitcoin tries to carve out new lows here. And the latest one seems to be this power law floor, this absolute floor that cannot be broken underneath. Now, before people click off the video, because they say, well, you know, again, technically it's about the ceiling, not the floor. You got to think about the psychological component of this. That is the second major model slash idea that has been broken this cycle. And as a result, it's probably going to lead to even more downward price action, right? This reflexive feedback loop of Bitcoin models being broken, retail investors hearing about it, or institutional investors hearing about it and deciding to sell their bags and potentially rotate even more into the AI trade. So it's an interesting time for Bitcoin. There are a lot of models underneath us and a lot of things suggesting that the bottom is probably closer than people think. I'd like to revise up my estimate from the last video. I think we're probably going to bottom in the low 50s, high 40s rather than visiting all the way down to 40k.