The Cruel Math Warns Of A Lost Decade Ahead For Investors | Danielle Park

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**Danielle Park** (0:59)
Any time you've been over 35 historically, your forward returns have been negative over 1, 3, 5 and 10 year periods. So the probabilities are that people are going to lose money from these levels.

**Adam Taggart** (1:18)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Well, 2025 draws to an end in just a few weeks. What should we expect, especially in terms of the markets, in 2026? To peer into the future for us, we've got the good fortune to welcome Danielle Park back to the program. Danielle is president and portfolio manager for Venable Park Investment Counsel, where she manages millions for some of Canada's wealthiest families. She's also publisher of the daily financial website, jugglingdynamite.com. Danielle, thanks so much for joining us today.

**Danielle Park** (1:52)
My pleasure, Adam. Thank you for having me.

**Adam Taggart** (1:54)
Oh, it's such a pleasure. I know we're going to make a lot of people happy having you back on the program, and I'm so glad that you have been able to make time for us right here at the end of 2025, because I think, as I said there in the intro, a lot of people asking, what is 2026 hold in store? Last time you were on the program, you put together a great slide presentation that you walk the audience through about how you saw the world and what your outlook was for the future, and you have done the same thing this time around, so I know people are going to have a strong interest in that. Before we just jump to the slides, if there was a word or a phrase to kind of sum up how you're looking at 2026, what would you pick?

**Danielle Park** (2:34)
Oh, goodness, crazy, volatile, uncertain. Things are always uncertain, and I've always kind of poked fun at people who say things like markets hate uncertainty because I always joke what's certain. I have no clue. We really don't know what's happening. But I think the biggest issue here has been the disconnect between the real economy and the macro picture and asset prices, because traditionally there's been a stronger correlation there, and in the last few years, there just hasn't. And so you wonder to yourself, is it pointless? Is macro assessments or analysis no longer necessary? Is it a waste of time?
Financial analysis, is that necessary? What a waste of time. We learned how to do that in all of our finance education. So the only thing that I come to there is, if it was completely irrelevant, why would big banks and institutions continue to employ whole legions of economists and analysts and talking heads to tell us all the time what they think is coming next. I think the reason frankly is they do that because if they didn't, it would look like we're just in a big gambling casino. Someone once wisely said that financial markets are casinos with better lighting. I've recently quipped that I find most financial types to be bookies, highly paid bookies. They just keep taking your bets. If it goes badly, oh well, so sad, it's not their fault. If it goes well, well, you won because they were smart or right or correct.
It's a bit of a mess. Things like they talk about, well, the Santa Claus rally is coming because seasonally, this is the strong time of the year. But it's true also that the whole year has been strong and that the spring part of the year that was supposed to be also favorable was when we saw a big crash. So really, upside, we're upside down, down is up, back is forward. So it's very difficult to get your bearings. And I think that's why I just continually do the historical work because I believe that human behavior is consistent. That has been my experience in my 60 years of life is that human behavior is consistent. And I take some comfort from books that are written 100 years ago and 200 years ago, 50 years ago, because they speak volumes of the exact same conditions that we're experiencing today. And of course, every generation thinks that we discover things fresh, and it's only us that's ever seen this. And of course, that's rarely been the case. So that's my long story to say, I wish I could see the future. I really do. I know some people confidently predict that they can. I've learned to be more humble over time about that.