The Biggest Risk Markets Face Is On No-Ones Radar Right Now | David Hay

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**Adam Taggart** (1:01)
Maybe we should use this as the visual for your theme here, but this is Ultraman, the giant robot, all of a sudden being faced by a bigger adversary, Godzilla here. I see this as your rotation of capital flow out of the US into the rest of the world and into natural resources.
Yeah, maybe we've had our eye on the wrong risk on the robot stumbling, but maybe the real risk is Godzilla emerging from the sea.

**David Hay** (1:34)
That's absolutely right. It's one that's unexpected, when there's nobody thinking about it.

**Adam Taggart** (1:45)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder, and your host Adam Taggart welcoming you here for a very special discussion with one of my favorite people to interview. He is the co-writer of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack and is the founder and was the former CIO, Chief Investment Officer of Evergreen Gavekal. Of course, I'm talking about David Hay. David, thanks so much for joining us.

**David Hay** (2:07)
It's great to be back with you. Adam, it's been too long. My fault, by the way.

**Adam Taggart** (2:10)
It has been too long. Well, you've had a very busy couple of months. I very much appreciate you making time to come back here and talk to the Thoughtful Money audience. And David, it's not like there's not an awful lot to talk about. And I'll just note, I'm sure we'll talk about this at some point in the presentation. The day we're talking on, hopefully, will be the day referred to as Silvermageddon, meaning hopefully, there will not be a bigger drawdown day than today.

**David Hay** (2:38)
We'll take a couple more to get down to zero.

**Adam Taggart** (2:40)
Yeah, I know. I mean, at one point, Silver was down, I think, well over 30 percent. And again, we're still in the first couple of hours after the market opened here. But again, well, I'm sure we'll touch on that in today's discussion. But as usual, you have prepared a trove of slides for us to go through, kind of how you see the macro and market situation right now. So I don't want to keep the audience from getting to those slides. Before we do, though, is there a general theme to how you're looking at the investing world today?

**David Hay** (3:13)
Yes, for sure.
The silver is kind of unrelated to that, but I guess the only connection is the dollar, because the dollar is a big part of what we're going to talk about. So I think there's a major breakdown occurring in the US dollar, and that obviously has been one of the reasons why silver has been so strong. But yes, I think that really where I'm going with this is that emerging markets and international markets in general have been behind the moon for 15 years, and they're already coming out from behind the moon. I don't want to steal my own thunder, but that's really the core thesis. So then I need to back up why this time is different versus all the starts that international markets have had over that 15-year period.

**Adam Taggart** (3:55)
I like that phrase, coming out from behind the moon. Well, is there any about that you want to talk about it at a high level before we get to the slides or should we just-

**David Hay** (4:03)
No, I don't think so. I've got a great quote. Before that, one thing I did want to do is because I know a lot of your listeners really have never heard of me. Some have seen me on here before.
Evergreen, which I'm still very close to that firm, and Louis Gov, which is so the Evergreen Gavekal, is obviously Louis Gov and his team. They're partners, Louis specifically is partners at Evergreen. And you've seen the income numbers that we generated over the years. And so I think that's worthy of a little bit of credibility. And then we're going to look at the Haymaker numbers here, which actually we focused on are just the growth ideas. Although we've provided a number of income ideas, but of course they don't have the same kind of octane that the growth ideas have. So I would like people to see those just so they go, okay, well, maybe this guy is worth listening to after all.