Tempest Of Tariffs Shocks Stocks | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

**Lance Roberts** (0:00)
And this is the problem with the markets right now, is that it's today we have tariffs tomorrow, we don't have tariffs, it's this tariff today, it's that tariff tomorrow. And so there's no way to price in. And so analysts are kind of all over the board right now, trying to figure out how to value the market, which is all that's happening, right? Markets are just repricing right now, trying to figure out what earnings are gonna be 12 months from now and 24 months from now. And you can't do that because tariffs are all over the board.

**Adam Taggart** (0:33)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money, I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Welcoming you here at the end of another week for another weekly market recap, featuring my good friend, the exigent portfolio manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how are you?

**Lance Roberts** (0:46)
Well, I've been better. This has been a little bit of a tough week. So, you know, we'll-

**Adam Taggart** (0:52)
I know, we see you've sold everything behind you, and your usual studio isn't there. Are you recording this from a cardboard box outside in the sidewalk?

**Lance Roberts** (0:59)
Exactly. No, my actual, my normal computer crashed this week, and so I had to send it into the shop to get fixed. So I'm running off a temporary laptop that's about five years old. So we're going to see how this goes today.

**Adam Taggart** (1:15)
That feels sort of appropriate for this week, where everybody is just kind of groping around in the dark, trying to figure out where the market's going to go. I use the word exigent to describe you this week, Lance. That means driven by a purposeful urgency.
Maybe that describes investors looking for some sort of relief in this market, but it also applies to today's rant if we can get to it. So lots to talk about. Let's just jump on in. So I was going to title today's discussion the elusive rally because folks have been thinking, at some point, there's going to be a bottom here. Last week, we talked about the potential for a tradable rally. We got one, but it was like a day and a half long. Is that all we're going to get? Or what's going on?

**Lance Roberts** (2:03)
Yeah, well, no, it's been interesting. I mean, really, for the last couple of weeks, this market's been trying to rally. We get a rally, we get a sell off, get a rally, get a sell off. Let's just go to the charts. And this is just kind of our weekly kind of chart that we just keep watching. But really, for the last two weeks, this market's rallied, declined, rallied, declined, rallied, declined. It's been in an upward trend channel until today, and we broke to the bottom side of that. So that's not a good sign at all. It's something that we obviously have been hoping wouldn't happen, but it is what it is. And again, there's a couple of things that are going on. You want to be real careful about, you know, when something happens like this for one day, is making an immediate assumption. It's like, oh my gosh, I got to get out, got to sell everything, that type of thing.
There's a lot of things that are happening right now, between now and next Tuesday, that are having a lot of impacts on the markets. And we'll certainly get into that a little bit more here as well. But, you know, again, kind of the bigger issue. And again, something that's, you know, is certainly worth considering. And again, we've got, this is also comes with that kind of typical grain of salt, to some degree, because over the last 15 years, a lot of these indicators, like the 50-day, like the 200-day, they have not been as reliable of break points as they were previously because of all these monetary interventions, et cetera. You know, historically, if you broke the 200-day moving average, that was a great kind of sign to get out of the markets because you're going to have a bigger correction over a certain period of time. And we've seen these failures before. Same thing with the 50-day crossing below the 200-day moving average. That's typically the death cross. And we've seen those over the last 15 years get reversed very quickly. And the market's frustrating, you know, people thinking that I'm going to short the market, make a lot of money. It's been very frustrating for that because the Fed steps in or something happens that causes the market to reverse. Now, again, this time is different as every time is. We don't have potentially a Fed at the ready to come stepping into the markets, although they did just announce, you know, kind of the decline of QT. We talked about that last week. But, you know, we did fail at the 200-day moving average. That's certainly not a good bullish sign here. Again, it doesn't mean the markets are about to crash and fall apart, but it does suggest we're probably going to be struggling here for a while longer.