Stocks To Crash By 50%+, Silver To Surge To $300+? | Michael Oliver

**Michael Oliver** (0:00)
So, I think we have a major asset category shift underway here, a topping process in the stock market. In fact, the biggest stock market bubble we've ever had, in terms of duration and dimension from 2009 to the present.
There's no bull market in US history that matches that.
Even 29 top didn't match it ,.com, etc., etc. So we have a bubble there, but we have a deflated bubble in the commodities that wants to reassert itself. Their technicals tell us it's going to do it. I think that's a place for investors to look. It will be in part a consequence of the breakage of the stock market, because the stock market breakage will cause movement of assets out of a broken category into that which is perceived to be low risk, higher reward commodity category.

**Adam Taggart** (0:56)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart.
The S&P 500 clocked its best month in six years in April. Is that momentum likely to continue? And will the volatility in many commodities due to the closure of the Persian Gulf likely become more extreme the longer this war extends?
What about bonds? Will the start of the Kevin Warsh era at the Federal Reserve bring any relief to yields? To address these pressing questions, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program technical analyst and author, Michael Oliver, Founder of Market Research for Momentum Structural Analysis. Michael, thanks so much for joining us today.

**Michael Oliver** (1:35)
Good to be back, Adam.

**Adam Taggart** (1:37)
Great to have you back, Michael. So last time we talked, I believe was at the Thoughtful Money Spring Conference two months ago.
You made it as you normally do, made a number of pretty bold statements about where you see different asset classes headed. I want to see if anything's changed since we talked two months ago.
Probably going to use the framework for this discussion. Your recent report that you just put out, Momentum Structural Analysis, this recent report you put out this weekend, and I'll bring up some of the charts in just a second. But why don't I start with this? As I mentioned, the S&P just had its best month in a number of years. Do you trust this rally? You know, are we in a new bull uptrend from here, or do you look at it with a little bit more skepticism?

**Michael Oliver** (2:27)
Here's our view. It's been our view for a while. We think the S&P, the stock market in the US has been in a topping process for a year, since early last year. The problem is that when you go back and look at the tops in the S&P, like 2000.com top, 2007 mortgage crisis top, it's laborious. It's not like, oh, that's it. It's all over in a spike and you collapse. No, it doesn't happen that way.
In fact, our momentum work in each of those two prior cases said it's topping before it actually made its final spike high in the process. It was laborious, but the momentum indicated early enough that, oh, this guy's running out of gas, he's floundering. And in each case, there was this final spike. Oh, boy. You know, great. You know, new high.
Back several months ago, if you'll look at an S&P chart, you don't have to right now, but if any of your watchers-

**Adam Taggart** (3:33)
I'll pull it up here.

**Michael Oliver** (3:34)
Punch up like a monthly S&P chart that's on the right side there.

**Adam Taggart** (3:40)
Here's the monthly S&P chart.

**Michael Oliver** (3:41)
Yeah, that's it. Look at- those are monthly bars going back to 2021, 2020, I think. But anyway, look at the cluster of bars that just occurred prior to the recent upside spike. The last four or five monthly bars go up the- yeah. So sideways, one, two, three, four, five, six months, and then you had a little plunge there by the war news, of course, that sort of nipped out the low of that cluster of action. And spooked a lot of people. The problem was, and we argued then, that even though the market's in a topping process, it needs to rally one more time. And there were technical reasons for this.
Plus, on the other hand, the other reason was you don't top a market with a transient headline.
The reasons for market tops are usually far more embedded in the fundamentals of the market than simply, oh, a new headline, oh, golly. If you go back to last year, for example, we had that drop due to the news of tariffs. In fact, tariffs would not even own anybody's lexicon until Trump became president and mentioned tariffs. And then suddenly, the market panicked on a headline. There are far bigger reasons for the stock market to top than a temporary headline. In fact, tariffs have not gone away, and yet the market moved to a new high, okay? So remember that when you trade off of headlines, the guy who shorted that market back last year got spiked very rapidly in April, when Trump said, oh, 90-day pause, and then, shoo, right back up. Same thing this time. We had the drop due to the Iran thing. And without a change in that, no positive development, the market said, hush, heck with that. I'm going back up anyway, okay? And surprised people. It did not surprise us because our more closer up technicals argued, nope, you got to have that one more rally. And we had it. Thank you.