SpaceX Stock Crashed. Starship Flight 13 Didn't.

**Ejaaz** (0:00)
Since they IPO-ed six weeks ago, SpaceX stock has absolutely created. It's down more than 50% from its all-time high. And as we're recording this, it reached a new all-time low of $107 per share. So the question on everyone's mind is, is SpaceX done for? Was it massively overpriced? Will this company make it? Well, this might be a hot take, but I think that the market is incredibly wrong about SpaceX, and I think it's an incredibly mispriced asset. Think about it from two simple perspectives. In order to get the best AI model out there, you need the most energy. Where do you get the most energy? From the sun. In order to do that, you need access to space, cheap access to space. SpaceX is the only company that has the advantage here, and they recently had Flight 13 for their new spaceship, which was a massive success, and they launched Starlink V3. It was an incredible test. We're going to get into that. The Bullcase and the Bearcase is going to be a sobering take on Limitless, which is unique for us on why SpaceX is a generational company.

**Josh** (1:00)
The Bullcase is mostly determinant of just the badass technology that they are producing now, and I think we're going to talk about that a lot. In terms of actual market sentiment, it's tough, right? It's like the stock IPO, and it was incredible. It went up to $225 per share. That's over $2.25 trillion market cap, which, you know, that's unreasonable. That is so much money. The multiples on the returns in terms of how much revenue they're making are just astronomical. It doesn't make sense. But it's not just the public market that can't figure out how to price this. There's a lot of values from these privately held banks that are trying to put price per share estimates on it, and they still can't figure it out either. I think this is the widest distribution of what banks are valuing the company at. We have Morningstar putting it at $63, and then we have Morgan Stanley on their bull case putting it at $600.
To me, that signals that this company is mostly misunderstood. People don't know how to value it. They don't know how to value a company that is planning to change the world today, because a lot of the value is promised in the future. So how do you trade that? What multiple does that trade at? And maybe in order to better understand that we could talk about the real technology that they're building that's going to get them to this spectacular market cap, because I can be empathetic. I mean, if you bought this a couple of weeks ago at 225, it's been a tough ride. I think we're here to provide a little bit of reassurance that like, hey, short-term, unsure, but long-term, there's some really compelling cases to be made for why Starship, for why SpaceX in general, there's going to be a lot of star naming in this episode, is a really spectacular company and it has monopolies across the board and things that other companies just can't really compete on.

**Ejaaz** (2:30)
I think it's important to lay out the bare case for SpaceX because we've been incredibly bullish about Elon Musk and all of his companies on this show.
And in fact, I think both of us bought the IPO when it did IPO. So we're in it with everyone. You're an investor that bought the IPO. We're here with you. We fill your pain. So let's walk through the bare case. Well, I'm definitely also on board, but we'll get to the bull case a little later. But let's look at the bare case. Let's see what the armchair critics are saying online. The I told you so's. So there's a few things happening right now. Number one, the fact that SpaceX was probably massively overvalued. We know that Elon Musk, in order to execute on his vision of turning civilization into a Kardashev Type 1 civilization, you need a lot of money to do that. Space travel is incredibly expensive, so he tried to raise as much money as he can. That's what he eventually did. The market is now showing us that it wants to reprice it to what it's actually valued at.
It IPO'd at $135. It's now sitting at an all-time low at $107. I think as we're looking at our screens right now, it's at $111 at the time of recording. But another big critic is only 4% of the share supply was revealed or made available for everyone. That is out of, I think, it's around 16 billion shares. And I think another 1 billion worth of shares gets unlocked in about a week's time, August 6th, I believe, which is two days after their first quarterly report. So there's a lot of things going on here. People are speculating, is the Q3 report going to be very good or is it going to be bad? Well, if you look at their financial statements from 2025, it's kind of sobering. They took a net loss of, I think, $4.5 billion.