S&P 6100 Likely Soon, But Pullback Risk Still Lurks | Lance Roberts

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**Lance Roberts** (0:55)
You have a lot of momentum in the markets, you have a lot of exuberance building in the markets right now. So that's, you want to remain long bias at this point, but at some point, you will have a correction and you can put more capital to work.

**Adam Taggart** (1:14)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you back here at the end of another week for another weekly market recap with my good friend, the Bellacose portfolio manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how are you doing?

**Lance Roberts** (1:28)
Bellacose.

**Adam Taggart** (1:30)
Bellacose, yep.

**Lance Roberts** (1:32)
I immediately think about Dracula when you say that word.

**Adam Taggart** (1:36)
Well, Bellacose is actually more from Bellum war, the Latin word for war. There's gonna be a warlike theme throughout today's discussion, and if we get to the rant, that'll all make more sense. But, I mean, we're starting off here, Lance. Look, war themes everywhere this week. Can't ignore the elephant in the room in the past, what, like 20 hours, but we've had Elon Musk and President Trump go to war very publicly on social media.

**Lance Roberts** (2:09)
Which I think is absolutely hysterical.

**Adam Taggart** (2:11)
Yeah, I'm sure we'll talk about it in just a second. We've obviously got the U.S.-China trade war continuing to run at white hot speed here. But there has been some development there with both Trump and Xi talking directly. Sadly, we've had an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. As Ukraine did the drone strikes on the Russian bomber fleet, and then last night, we began to see some big retaliation from Russia in response to that. So, it just sort of war, war, war everywhere these days.
Look, I'm sure by the time we're done recording this, Lance, there's going to be like 5 zillion updates to the whole Elon Trump thing, and it seems like maybe they're cooling off a little bit, and letting tempers cool off at least a little bit here. But let me just ask you this. We talked a tiny bit about this last week, but which side should we be rooting on, do you think, here in the big, beautiful bill? Is it an abominative pork fest, as Elon is saying here? Is it the best that can be done right now, just given the limitations of the Congress that we have, as Trump says right now? Is it somewhere in the middle? What do you think?

**Lance Roberts** (3:30)
Well, as I've been saying for the last month or so, I'm particularly on, we've talked about this numerous times on the Real Investment Show during the week, is that everybody's kind of all wrapped up around this bill like they think it's actually going to pass. And you got to remember the bill when it was, so there's a process in government, right, that most people don't understand with bills. So the House drafts up a bill and they pass it. Well, they pass this bill by one vote. So then it goes to the Senate.
And right now, in the Senate, there's still a very narrow margin between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate. So they can't really afford to change much in that bill and get it passed. But there's pushback from people like Rand Paul, etc. that are very likely going to want to change things in the bill. There's also things in the bill that don't pass the Byrd rule as well. So the bottom line, don't worry about all that stuff, but the bottom line is if they make one change to the bill, just one of whatever it is, it's got to go back to the House in terms of reconciliation to get passed again. Again, then if they make one change in the Senate that loses one vote in the House, bill doesn't pass. So the reality of this is, at the end of the day, is that most likely there is a very high probability that all this hand-wringing over the bill and the deficit and all this other stuff, it's not going to pass. We're going to wind up with a basic continuing resolution just to fund last year's spending. You add 8% to that, and we go forward in October to make sure we can continue to fund the government. And this bill has to get completely rewritten at some point, broken down into parts. However, it finally gets passed, maybe much later on. And then, of course, don't forget, you've got midterm elections coming up, and there's enough pushback by conservatives on this bill that maybe that puts some of these seats at risk come midterm elections next year, that we start to see more conservatives back up on passing this big, beautiful bill. Because it really is, it's a lot of spending, a lot of it's just continuation of previous spending, and kind of the whole point of DOGE and all this other stuff was to actually enact some spending cuts in government. And of course, you know, DOGE did a good job of that. They did find a couple hundred billion dollars worth of cuts, but those are not being incorporated into the bill. Because again, what DOGE needs to be is it actually needs to be codified through Congress so that these cuts and the process of DOGE can actually be a more permanent part of government.