Ryan Serhant’s Shocking Prediction For Housing Prices, Mamdani Victory, & ‘Freeze The Rent!’

**SPEAKER_1** (0:02)
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**Ryan Serhant** (0:30)
We are in one of the most delusional real estate markets I've ever seen, and I love it.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:35)
The run, Mamdani's win has sparked a wealth panic.

**Ryan Serhant** (0:38)
There's Mamdani's rent freeze.

**Graham Stephan** (0:39)
Mamdani's policies are going to be very destructive for this city.

**Ryan Serhant** (0:42)
First, everyone needs to stay calm and carry on. Fear fuels markets. New York City has gotten through global recessions, global pandemics way worse than a 33-year-old TikTok mayor. Rent is high. Regular necessities are all too high. So I get it. Like if you're angry and someone comes out and says, I know why you're angry and I'm going to fix it, you vote for that guy.

**Graham Stephan** (1:06)
So what do you think are the biggest opportunities going forward today?

**Ryan Serhant** (1:09)
I have a lot of clients through real estate who just have become extremely wealthy in so many different ways. And they all keep saying that something really big is coming. It's AI, but not really in the way you'd expect. So if you do those four things, you will be wildly successful.

**Graham Stephan** (1:22)
How would you change the housing market if you were a mayor? Ryan, thank you so much for coming on The Iced Coffee Hour. I really appreciate it. Our last episode did incredible. And I'm really excited to talk to you again today because a lot of people now argue that we're in a housing bubble.

**Ryan Serhant** (1:39)
Really?

**Graham Stephan** (1:39)
That housing is very unaffordable for a lot of people, especially New York City of all places. What do you have to say about that?

**Ryan Serhant** (1:47)
I look at a bubble as something that can be explained but is about to pop. I don't think what we're in is about to pop. I think it can easily be explained. I think we have an unaffordability crisis. I think there's an income gap, obviously, but I think rates are incredibly high. I think there's very, very, very little inventory. We're on year three of like three decade lows in terms of housing transactions throughout the United States. And that's worldwide, but just so we can focus the conversation here.
That doesn't feel like a bubble to me. What it feels like is an unaffordability crisis more than anything. And it's pushing people into rents, but rents are also incredibly, incredibly high. And so something has to give. And so what will probably happen is you'll have an American debt crisis with all of the debt that people have racked up from buy now, pay later tacos, to student debt, to auto loan debt, to just general credit card debt. I feel like there's a new credit card that gets invented every other day that sells you a bag of rewards, but actually is preying on people's lack of income to be able to afford what it means to actually live in the United States these days. That seems like a bubble to me versus housing. Anyone who has, anyone who's bought a home since 2008 or 2009, let's say after Dodd-Frank, right? You've either paid in cash or you've financed. If you finance, you have a 30 year fix or a 15 year fix, and that's a hefty monthly payment, or you've gotten an arm, a five, one, a seven, one or a 10, one arm, and in order to get an adjustable rate mortgage, you have to be approved at the 30 year fixed monthly. So maybe you've lost your job, et cetera, that'll always happen. But I think the rate of delinquencies is not nearly where it would need to be to cause, quote unquote, a bubble.

**Graham Stephan** (3:35)
A lot of the charts seem to show the housing prices outpacing income by like five times.

**Ryan Serhant** (3:40)
Oh yeah, for sure.

**Graham Stephan** (3:41)
What do you think is causing that specifically? Do you think it's more so land scarcity, or do you think it's government policy?

**Ryan Serhant** (3:47)
I think there's policy and tax code that has both hurt and helped the American home buyer and home seller. If you think about like the capital gains right off, right? If you think like the joint married filing jointly, right? Up to $500,000, that made a big difference in the 90s. If you had a house for $500,000 in the 90s and you sold it, like that's an expensive house. Today, that is barely the starter price for a home in middle America, right? 277 cities in the United States right now say a starter home is $1 million and above. Over almost 600 cities have a luxury market that's 1.4 million and above. Like that is crazy, but there's no write-offs for that, right? Like what are you going to do? And so, there's a lot of equity that people built up in their homes and they're just not moving. And so, asset prices continue to go up. You have boomers that don't want to sell. Where are they supposed to go?