Retiree benefits bump, credit repayment slump, and a dating app in the dumps

**Adrian Ma** (0:01)
N-P-R.

**Wailin Wong** (0:06)
This is The Indicator from Planet Money. I'm Wayland Wong.

**Ricky Mulvey** (0:09)
I'm Ricky Mulvey.

**Adrian Ma** (0:10)
And I'm Adrian Ma.

**Wailin Wong** (0:11)
If the triumvirate is all here, that can only mean one thing.

**SPEAKER_4** (0:15)
It is Indicators of the Week.

**Ricky Mulvey** (0:19)
It's the day of the week when we talk about our favorite numbers from the news. And on today's episode, we're talking about retirees getting a bump in benefits, credit card debt that's gotten more delinquent, and the dating app Bumble's major reversal and concurrent decline.

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**Adrian Ma** (1:49)
Waylon Wong.

**Wailin Wong** (1:50)
Hello.

**Adrian Ma** (1:51)
Why don't you start us off?

**Wailin Wong** (1:52)
Okay. My indicator has to do with the July inflation data we got this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now, we usually talk about the main number, that is an index called CPIU.
But for my indicator, I'm going to talk about a different measure of inflation called the CPIW.

**Ricky Mulvey** (2:11)
Got a lot of letters here, Waylon. I feel like I need some clarification on the U.

**Wailin Wong** (2:15)
Yeah. So U stands for all urban consumers. And this is a sticking point for some people in rural areas, of course. Now, CPIW is even more narrow. The W stands for urban wage earners and clerical workers. And it was up 3.4 percent in July. That's my indicator, 3.4 percent.

**Adrian Ma** (2:36)
That's interesting. I actually haven't heard of CPIW. What made you want to focus on this one?

**Wailin Wong** (2:41)
Well, the Social Security Administration uses CPIW to calculate its yearly cost of living adjustment. This is a bump in benefits for people who collect social security or supplemental security income. The AARP says that for a lot of retirees, this cost of living adjustment is their only source of inflation protected income. So this week, when we got July inflation numbers, people who track social security released their estimates of what the adjustment might be. We're going to find out the final number in October.

**Ricky Mulvey** (3:13)
And so it went up, the CPIW specifically. That's up 3.4% in July. So those getting social security, they're looking at what, a 3%-ish increase?

**Wailin Wong** (3:23)
Something like that. The AARP is projecting a 3.5% adjustment for 2027 based on current inflation trends. That would be an extra 73 bucks a month for the average retired worker. Then there's another group, the Senior Citizens League, that's projecting a 3.6% increase, which if that holds will actually be the biggest increase in four years.

**Adrian Ma** (3:44)
So why is the government using CPIW to calculate this?

**Wailin Wong** (3:49)
Yeah, so now it's time for a little history trivia.
Congress enacted this cost of living adjustment for social security benefits back in 1973 And at that time, CPIW was the only inflation index the government measured. Now attracts a bunch of different indices, including the CPIU, which is like the main number. But the Social Security Administration is still using CPIW, and the BLS says the index represents about 30% of the total US population.

**Ricky Mulvey** (4:18)
So we got to hold on tight for the release in October.

**Wailin Wong** (4:20)
October, then we'll know what the real number is.

**Ricky Mulvey** (4:22)
Thanks, Waylon Wong. Adrian, what's your indicator?

**Adrian Ma** (4:26)
My indicator is 12.8%.
That is the percentage of credit card debt considered seriously delinquent, according to a new report out this week by the New York Fed. So seriously delinquent means that this debt is at least 90 days past due. And we haven't actually seen this amount of seriously delinquent debt since around the time of the Great Recession.