Prepare for a more intense El Niño, UN warns

**Alex Ritson** (0:00)
This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service.
I'm Alex Ritson, and at 16 Hours GMT on Tuesday 2nd June, these are our main stories. The UN Secretary General says the predicted Super El Niño weather system will pour fuel on a warming globe. Israeli strikes in the south of Lebanon have continued despite a US-brokered partial ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Two people have died in central Kenya during protests against plans to establish a US-backed Ebola isolation centre. Also in this podcast…

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**Alex Ritson** (0:54)
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A new phase of the natural Enigno weather pattern could begin in the next few months, the UN has warned, boosting temperatures on the planet already under strain from climate change. The World Meteorological Organization says this El Nino is likely to strengthen over the rest of 2026, driving more extreme weather events around much of the globe. Several forecasts from national weather agencies suggest it could end up as one of the strongest ever recorded, a possible so-called super El Nino. Here's the Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres.

**António Guterres** (1:49)
I thank the World Meteorological Organization for this vital new update. The science is clear. El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.
Impact will hit even harder, travel even further, and cross borders with devastating speeds.

**Alex Ritson** (2:19)
I heard more about El Nino from our climate editor, Justin Rowlatt.

**Justin Rowlatt** (2:23)
It's a change in the pattern of winds in the central, the tropical Pacific Ocean. So, the trade winds that normally blow east to west either stop or reverse direction. And that means that affects the currents of water under the ocean. So, the ocean collects heat from the atmosphere, and instead of that heat travelling towards the west, it begins to travel towards the east. And we've got a series of satellites, there are moored buoys, there are floating buoys in the Pacific that measure water temperatures. And scientists can see this kind of pulse, a kind of wave of undersea heat developing and moving steadily across the ocean towards the west coast of South America, where it up wells and that raises surface temperatures. So the undersea, this water under the water, is up to 6 degrees Celsius higher than you'd expect at this time of year. That's a really significant increase in temperature. When it gets to the surface off the coast of South America in the autumn towards the winter, we're expecting surface temperatures to be 2 degrees Celsius or more than you would normally expect them to be. That is a huge increase in temperature. And that heat obviously is radiated out in the atmosphere. And that's where you get the kind of ripple of consequences on weather patterns around the world. The weather is really all about the transfer of heat from the oceans into the atmosphere and then around the globe. And the more heat you have, it changes weather patterns. So for example, we can expect to see things like droughts and wildfires in places like the Amazon, Australia, and then into Southeast Asia, even into India. So it can affect the Indian monsoon with huge consequences there and indeed around the world.

**Alex Ritson** (4:08)
Justin Rowlett, listening to that was our Global Affairs reporter, Anbarasan Etirajan. So what impact could this have in South Asia and further afield?

**Anbarasan Etirajan** (4:19)
As Justin was mentioning, the monsoon is going to have an impact because the Indian weather forecasters are saying India is likely to receive the lowest monsoon rainfall in 11 years. Now, why this is important? Because nearly 70% of water resources in India, they get their water mainly from this monsoon rain. And given that more than 50% of India's farmlands don't have proper irrigation facility, they depend on rainwater. So if there is any deficiency in rain, that is going to have an impact on food production.
In the previous years, for example, in India, when they faced this illinear condition, food production went down, the prices shot up. As a result, they stopped grain exports, for example, non-Basmati rice. So India is the largest exporter of rice in the world. So if India stops exporting, then the global prices go up. And also India is one of the biggest producers of sugar. So it can have an impact, but then again, it can also increase inflation within India as well.