Oneshot: Tempo Mainnet, Agentic Payments, and SEC Crypto Rulemaking | Roundup

**Michael** (0:00)
But I think Stripe is kind of hedging their bets. They're like, OK, if it's stable coins, we got tempo. If it's credit cards, we got Stripe's core business. But we know agents are going to utilize us, we just don't know how.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:10)
Nothing said on Oneshot is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Michael, Vance, and our guests may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.

**Vance** (0:31)
All right, let's rip it.

**Michael** (0:33)
Phone's off.

**Vance** (0:37)
I got money on the phone.

**Michael** (0:39)
Hands and legs inside the vehicle.

**Vance** (0:42)
I think we're going to make it. How are we doing?

**Michael** (0:47)
Pretty crazy week, all around. Seems like a lot of stuff is going on, and some things are being paid attention to.

**Vance** (0:58)
Should we get some straight-up Hormuz up on the screen with the live tanker tracker?

**Michael** (1:02)
A live tanker tracker? No, I don't think this is a international relations podcast. I think we can master it as a macro podcast, but I don't think that that is necessarily our forte.

**Vance** (1:14)
Let me ask you a question. Do you remember when we almost hired Peter Zyhan to come in and teach us about global macro during the Ukraine War?

**Michael** (1:22)
And then you found the clip of him saying that Bitcoin is going to go negative?

**Vance** (1:28)
Well, I was actually thinking about that, and maybe just to tee it off. All the crypto we bought, kind of at the lows during the Ukraine War. Do you remember how stressful that was?

**Michael** (1:42)
It was, I think the line that we finally came to was, either this industry is completely over, or it's going to come back.

**Vance** (1:55)
And it did come back. And I think we are in a similar period of time right now. There's so much prognostication going on about how this war is being prosecuted. But I mean, you win by killing the other team's leadership. Right? Like on a literal sense. And they basically killed everyone, them being the Israelis. And it now feels like there are some tactical strikes on these energy sites that are tit for tat. And, you know, the next leg of escalation is maybe like the desalination plants. But I don't know if there's a ton of desire to go there. And then the last thing I would say is like the 20 million barrels a day. Very scary figure. That's like 20 percent of global oil consumption per day.
That's really kind of more like six. You know, they got the East-West pipeline going. There's talk about tankers getting escorted. So like, I think overall, it's hard to know how these wars turn out. But it feels like we're on the tail end of this in terms of the shock and all on escalation.

**Michael** (2:56)
And I think there's a bit of overfitting happening as well, which is, and recency bias or just like the overton window of everyone's memory is definitely a real factor when it comes to market psychology. And I think most people in markets right now are, were in markets in 2022 when we had the last shock. But what, you know, that represented was a Ukraine Russia conflict leading to an oil shock leading to inflation. Now, how much can we strip out of the inflation effect that was actually because of oil? It was definitely some. But if you remember at the same time, the Fed Jerome Powell was saying, well, it's transitory because it's a, it's a supply chain constraint. It's, this is like the residual effects of COVID. We can't get stuff shipped here. This is when people were following Ryan Peterson of Flexport talking about how many tankers were going into the Port of LA. Like that's what was going on at the time. And so I think that there's a bit of like, you need to separate out the variables that contribute to the effects. And oil was definitely one of those. Now, was it the overwhelming majority of what led to inflation? No. And this whole market sentiment of like, not only are there going to be zero rate cuts this year, there's actually going to be rate heights now as part of the narrative.

**Vance** (4:14)
In Europe, I don't know if that's come to the US.

**Michael** (4:17)
Well, that's what people... Look, the Twitter PR newswire is saying rate cuts are now... rate heights are now on the table with Jerome Powell potentially staying, if there can't be a confirmed new Fed governor or Fed chair. Like, all of these things are just like... This is peak bearish for kind of like macro sentiment right now. But I think my broader point is people are overfitting this oil shock directly leading to inflation. And so, what I will say is there was actually a really good analogy that I heard or comparable that I heard, which was the 2010 through 2013 period where the average price of oil was $95, which in 2026 turns is like $125. So, not only is it $95 and we're at $95 today, but like in today's terms, it's like as if oil was at $130, $125.