Oneshot: Market Uncertainty, AI Valuations, and Crypto’s Path Forward | Roundup

**Michael** (0:00)
But I think the meme that was Nothing Ever Happens has turned into Everything Is Happening All At Once All The Time.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:07)
Nothing Said On Oneshot is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Michael, Vance, and our guests may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.

**Michael** (0:28)
What's up?

**Vance** (0:30)
And we're back.

**Michael** (0:31)
We're back. Welcome back to Oneshot, the bi-weekly podcast that has turned into a weekly podcast.

**Vance** (0:38)
We're going to hold ourselves to the standard of weekly, bi-weekly. We will have things to report on as they happen. We will have subjects. We will break news. We will have guests as they have relevant things to talk about and updates themselves.

**Michael** (0:56)
We're going to be free form and not... There's no bounds to this podcast. But I think the meme that was nothing ever happens has turned into everything is happening all at once, all the time, especially with the geopolitical conflicts going on. I don't think we are going to espouse any personal views on like, if this is a good or bad thing, I think it is what it is and we'll play the hand that we're dealt.
But it is quite the weak in macro oil that was literally, everyone remembers when it spiked to 120 during the Ukraine War. I actually got that wrong, Michael. It was like basically right as it happened, first like three months, that spike and it went to 50 as of like a month ago or I guess two weeks ago. Now, it's back at 100 It seems like it's max political violence on both sides. It's the straight is being mined or maybe not, depending on which news report you get. But there's a lot going on.

**Vance** (1:57)
Yeah, we're at 96.5 as of Thursday.

**Michael** (2:01)
Are you checking on hyper liquid or what are you checking on?

**Vance** (2:04)
WTI crude spot on, I don't know who, yeah, just the spot market on TradingView. Well, you know, it's interesting. I think the big question now is sort of like what happens in the straight. Seeing photos of people posts from Dubai at night of just like the tankers that are lined up. Also seeing all kinds of fake news and fake videos of like things catching on fire and things getting bombed out. It's just like, no, these, thank God we have Brock on X to just, you know. That's true. Tell us whether or not this is a real thing. Don't need to go too deep on, you know, what happened on Sunday night, what happened on Monday. It's now Thursday. Things seem to have quelled a bit, but the spike from like 80 to 120, back down to 80 or 90 was a violent move.
And it seems like what has been notable, especially as it relates to what we usually talk about, is a lot of this was happening on hyperliquid. And a lot of it, I think, when you have these liquid markets for non-crypto assets built on a crypto platform that trades 24-7, there's, with Perpetuals, there's just a lot of room for this stuff to move wildly. And one of the things that we've talked about internally is just like, what happens if we're moving to a world that has much more volatile markets, where it is not uncommon to see large cap companies plus or minus 10 to 20 to 30 percent, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars, trillion dollar companies move on that type of news. And we're in the middle of a regime change, I'd say, in terms of the stock market. But now you're starting to see things like oil or commodities move in those directions, which is very uncommon for that type of stuff to happen. Yes, it's Ukraine War. Yes, it's Iran War type events. But I generally think especially as we have many different new trading venues that are 24-7, you're going to start to see more volatile and interesting ways to play different markets that will lead to more activity. But yeah, one of the big winners here, I think, out of all of this is hype. And you're starting to see it now hit all-time highs in terms of BTC, ETH and Seoul. So that ratio is now at all-time highs. I think the token itself is somewhere around the 36, 37 But it just seems to be that, you know, hip three with these different markets and some of the off non-crypto assets are really exciting. And it's positive to see from a crypto perspective. Now, obviously, the whole war and everything, who knows kind of where this leads. I've heard so many different takes. It's now probably not incumbent upon us to give our perspective or regurgitation of any of those takes. It just is what it is right now. But I will say, I think, just given the nature of where we are in a midterm year, in the political sphere, this stuff probably ends, or at least gets declared ended sooner rather than later, because there's just a political gravitational force to stop this soon. And now you've got, I can't remember how many barrels, but it's a ton of barrels out of the SPR that are getting unloaded to keep oil prices down, or at least attempt to keep oil prices down. There's now eight states where diesel is over five bucks, and I think California has over six. So you're starting to see these effects affect the pump, or affect the prices at the pump, which will have direct effect on downstream. This is what happened last time. This is why everybody's freaking out. It's like you have people who are scared that high oil or energy prices lead to future inflation, which is what happened last time a couple of years ago.