Oil To Collapse To $25/Barrel After Iran War Ends? | Doomberg

**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
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**SPEAKER_2** (0:28)
The Saja Boys Breakfast Meal and the Huntrix Meal of the K-Pop Demon Hunters have arrived at McDonald's. They're calling it the Battle for the Fans. What do you think, Rumi?

**SPEAKER_3** (0:37)
It's not a battle. We're glad that our juniors, the Saja Boys, were able to have breakfast and we had the rest of the day's meal. It's an honor to be able to share with you.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:46)
Oh no, the honor is ours.

**SPEAKER_3** (0:48)
The greatest honor is ours.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:50)
Oh, a lot of respect in this battle. Choose a meal to choose your group in McDonald's.

**Doomberg** (0:56)
In McDonald's, participants have to waste their lives. Price of oil is going to collapse. The onslaught of incremental supply will hit markets just as demand destruction sets in. A return of the Middle East, and the increase in production that always comes, you know, as we've said before in your show, all shortages lead to gluts. The long-term real price of all commodities is lower. And in two years, three years, four years, the price of oil in today's dollars will be 25, 30 dollars a barrel.

**Adam Taggart** (1:36)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. The war against Iran is creating a global oil shock, both in price and supply. How serious and long lasting is this likely to be? And what will the knockout effects be for the future of oil and gas flows, for other conventional fuels like coal, and for the future of alternative sources like nuclear energy? To discuss in depth, we're fortunate to sit down with the green chicken himself, the energy expert, Doomberg. Doomberg, wonderful to see you again. Thanks so much for joining us today.

**Doomberg** (2:09)
Adam, great to be with you, my friend. Great to see you again.

**Adam Taggart** (2:12)
Thank you. And I very much appreciate that, given everything that you have going on in your life, I know you're about to enter kind of a blackout period for podcasts soon, given some commitments, which maybe you can share with the audience here, but very much appreciate that you are basically letting Thoughtful Money be one of the last ones you speak with before that happens.

**Doomberg** (2:31)
Yeah, we're taking a small break from doing podcasts. Hopefully, we're going to try. We've committed to writing a book, a Doomberg book, which is a big deal, a lot of work.
So taking a bit of a break. Of course, this was planned before the war in Iran broke out, nothing like a hot war in the Middle East to scuttle your book writing sabbatical plans, but we're going to try to take a pause at least, but always happy to chat with you and we'd had the schedule then, so I'm happy to chat with you today. Lord knows there's so much to chat about.

**Adam Taggart** (3:01)
Well, there really is, but before we dive into it again, just congratulations on getting invited to write one, and I'm sure it's going to be a smashing success, and when you re-emerge, I'd love to have you back on to tell this audience all about it.

**Doomberg** (3:16)
Greatly appreciate that. Thanks, and certainly will.

**Adam Taggart** (3:19)
Okay.

**Doomberg** (3:20)
All right.

**Adam Taggart** (3:20)
Now let's roll up our sleeves here. So much to talk about. I guess let's just start with this. How big of a factor is the Iran War on oil and gas markets? Is it going to be transitory as the administration is trying to say? Well, like, hey, look, we had to do this. It was a four to six week operation, and I think Trump said after it's done, oil is going to sink like a stone, or is this more of a long-term game changer?

**Doomberg** (3:43)
Let's take a step back. If you and I were handed the factset of the past 40 days, hot war in the Middle East, Strait of Hormuz closed for a month, tankers being blown up, Ukraine upping its attacks on Russian export facilities and oil tankers, going back to Venezuela, embargo on Cuba, which looks like Russia just broke. If you've given us this factset and said, hey, the over-under on the price of oil is 150, I think we would have both bet the mortgage on the over, yeah? On the over, yeah. I think we have to start with that, which is I have been personally surprised. Look, you know me, I'm no big peak-cheap oil proponent. In fact, quite the opposite. But this is not an issue of geology, of course. It is an issue of geography. I would have been shocked to learn that oil is struggling to stay at or above $100 a barrel, given this factset, especially that these are nominal prices. The highs that we saw in the aftermath of the war between Russia and Ukraine has exceeded this even in nominal terms, let alone $147 a barrel back in 2008 So one must take a pause and say, wow, what has changed that has allowed things to stay under control? Now, of course, the bullish oil investors would say the government's manipulating the price, blah, blah, blah, and of course, they are. They're dumping hundreds of millions of barrels of oil onto the market with the expressed intent of keeping a lid on price. And if you are long oil, you have to know that the G7 is your counterparty. They're on the other side of your trade, and they don't want you making money in a war in the same way that the Fed doesn't want you making money shorting banks during a financial crisis. You just have to recognize that you are fighting against the current of every western nation that is interested in seeing the price of oil stay under control.