Odds Of Stocks Recovering To Hit New Highs Increasing | Lance Roberts

**Adam Taggart** (0:01)
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**Lance Roberts** (0:28)
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**Lance Roberts** (0:58)
The good news about all this is that we've been working off a lot of those previous overbought conditions that we had last year, heading into November. This kind of slog we've been in since really November has worked off a lot of those momentum indicators that were very overbought. We've got relative strength has worked off a bit. We're more neutral levels there. So that's kind of reloading the bullish support for the market. So if we can kind of get through this narrative environment that we're in at the moment and start seeing money flows kind of return to the markets, we should start to see a push higher.

**Adam Taggart** (1:41)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you back here at the end of the week for another weekly market recap featuring my good friend, the intergalactic portfolio manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how are you?

**Lance Roberts** (1:55)
Okay, why intergalactic?

**Adam Taggart** (1:59)
Well, because former President Obama when being interviewed a few days ago, slipped out that, yeah, aliens are real. And it got so much interest that President Trump just, I guess, gave an order last night to the Department of War to say, all right, share everything around UFOs, aliens, whatever that we may have.

**Lance Roberts** (2:19)
Can we just be honest about this? Aliens have already come, realized there was no intelligent life here and left.

**Adam Taggart** (2:26)
Yeah.

**Lance Roberts** (2:29)
So, aliens are real, but they're not here. They just said that nothing's salvageable on that planet. Let's move on.

**Adam Taggart** (2:37)
They got better stuff to do in the universe than waste their time with us. Yeah, I wouldn't doubt it. All right. Well, look, lots of talk about, Lance, and as I was putting together the topics to talk about today, we had breaking news, which is that the Supreme Court struck down the Trump tariffs. So immediately on that news, the S&P vaulted higher by 500 points.
That being said, from the brief analysis that I've had a chance to read, it doesn't seem like this is by any way the end of tariffs here. And let me just read this piece by Goldman here. Quote, this won't be the end of tariffs. The administration will almost certainly roll out alternative legal frameworks. Net result is probably slightly fewer tariffs, materially more trade uncertainty, and some incremental deficit concerns. Net-net, that's mildly supportive for equities and mildly negative for bonds, but largely priced for both. So I guess first question for you, Lance, is do you agree or do you have a different take?

**Lance Roberts** (3:44)
Nope, I absolutely agree. I think we talked about this once before is that even if they roll against them, they have other measures to impose tariffs. And so one of them is most likely they'll use this kind of rolling, I think it's 180-day window that you can impose 15% tariffs, which are well within the bounds of what we're already tariffing other countries. So let's just kind of renew them every 150, 180 days. So it's great. I mean, it's, again, I think that analysis is right.
It was both the tariffs themselves and the expectation of the Supreme Court ruling against the tariffs and that there's alternatives. I think that's all been priced into the market. And that's why the market was a little bit negative this morning. It wasn't really because of that ruling so much. That came after futures were down, going into the market this month. And right after that announcement, futures took off, but also futures are up today because GDP came in weaker than expected, but personal consumption was strong. So that's also fueling this narrative that the economy is not falling off a cliff. Everything is fine and earnings growth should be okay. So I think just combination of both of those just gave the markets a little bit of lift this morning. And most of the money is going back into the stuff that's beaten up. I mean, it's Google, it's Meta today, it's Amazon, it's Apple, it's Nvidia. Those are what's driving the market. Stuff has been beat up lately as leading the market today.