New Stock Market All-Time Highs Coming In Just A Few Weeks? | Fundstrat's Mark Newton

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**Mark Newton** (0:59)
I think the market is going to be at new all-time highs likely into July. I think probably it might even happen as early as next month. It likely could happen in the next couple weeks.

**Adam Taggart** (1:19)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. The markets have had a volatile ride so far in 2025, falling hard in March and April, but recovering nearly all those losses in May. So was the painful drop we experienced just a standard correction within an ongoing bullish market trend? Or has this been a bear market rally poised to roll back over soon? For Insight, we're fortunate to welcome Mark Newton to the program today. Mark's the head of technical strategy at the market research firm Fundstrat, where he works with its co-founder, Tom Lee. Mark, thanks so much for joining us today.

**Mark Newton** (1:57)
Thank you, Adam. Nice to be here.

**Adam Taggart** (1:59)
Thank you. All right. Well, as I said in the intro, this is your first time on the program. I really appreciate you coming on, Mark. There is a starting question that I'm kind of known for asking people, and I'm realizing I haven't asked it for a while. And since this is your first time on the program, I figured it'd be a nice way to christen this inaugural appearance of you. What's your current assessment of the global economy and financial markets?

**Mark Newton** (2:23)
Well, I think it's always difficult to have a very accurate picture of where the economy is. I think even most economists will tell you that just given the lagging nature of many of the indicators, they study that there certainly are a lot of moving pieces, particularly after COVID, that hasn't gotten any easier. My view is that the economy still is largely in good shape, and I take that from not only GDP but inflation, which seems to be starting to pull back despite the tariffs, the fact the labor market is still in good shape, and also that the housing market really has not shown as much deterioration as what might be necessary to think the economy is rolling over.
Despite all the craziness, I'm actually pretty optimistic, at least for now. I think, you know, there are some worrisome signs on the fringes when you look at credit card delinquencies and certain things. But for me, you know, even as a non-economist, it all rests with unemployment. And until that starts to go up meaningfully, or we see the fact that housing really starts to nosedive, you know, I'm a glass half full type person. I think very well that we could weather this, so we could actually put off a larger setback for a couple of years.

**Adam Taggart** (3:47)
Okay. So I have said many, many times on this channel with a lot of other experts, that sort of so goes the employment market, so goes the economy. Sounds like you're sort of of a similar mindset. And we're still near, you know, historically low unemployment. So it doesn't seem to be, you know, sending crisis signals right now. I mean, there's maybe some cracks we could talk about, but nothing right now that is signaling any sort of imminent concern. Okay. So given that and everything you mentioned, sounds like you said you're generally optimistic. So to my question that I sort of posed there in the introduction of, were March and April more of just a correction in an ongoing bullish trend, or is it sort of classic bear market rally that sucks people back into the market and then pulls the rug out from under them?
Sounds like you think it's probably more likely the former?

**SPEAKER_6** (4:40)
I would agree with that, Adam.

**Mark Newton** (4:41)
I think that it's very much similar to the move we saw at the onset of COVID. In February, the market actually peaked on the exact same day, February the 19th, five years ago. At that time, we had a 33 percent correction in 33 calendar days or about one unit of price per unit of time. This time around, we had less of a correction, and we've almost had one of the more robust rallies back to new all-time highs ever in a quickest period of time. When you look at the 20 percent drawdowns of the last 100 years, 1998 comes to mind that we actually recovered all-time highs in about 32 trading days. We're at about 30, given the weakness between yesterday and today, it looks like we're not going to get there right away. But I do sense that in a lot of my market gauges have gotten a lot more constructive with regards to breath and momentum. It is encouraging to see technology lead us back as strong as it has. I mean, many of these companies have all improved our lives for the better. And when you see tech have as big of a rally as it has, and still the earnings growth is still quite good in technology, that's certainly reason to be optimistic. I would couple that with the fact that sentiment remains still quite subdued even after a 20 percent move off the lows. I mean, there were certainly reasons to be, I think, concerned when the bond market started to ratchet up when bond yields started to move up rapidly in early April. But in my view, Scott Bessent had the president's year and we had a very noticeable pivot, even if it happened behind the scenes, we saw the rhetoric grow a lot less severe, more calming and markets certainly started to rebound in a way that caught many people off guard. Now, having to recalibrate their own expectation of whether they want to jump back up on the rally and try to participate or whether they're going to wait for a pullback.