Michael Saylor: Why Bitcoin Stalled at $126K, The Quantum Debate, and What Every Critic Gets Wrong

**Michael Saylor** (0:00)
There really is no example of a successful technology investment where you didn't have to weather the 45 percent drawdown and go through that valley of despair. Ours is currently taking 137 days so far. But you know, it might take two years, it might take three years, it might take four years. If it took seven years, congratulations, it's just like Apple Computer, the biggest success story of the decade.

**Natalie Brunell** (0:29)
Everyone wants to hear from him. Michael Saylor, thank you so much for joining me on the show. It's great to see you. You're one of the only bulls left, it feels like.

**Michael Saylor** (0:38)
I think there's a lot of bulls out there. Just they're waiting.

**Natalie Brunell** (0:44)
Well, let's start right there. Bitcoin's price is down. Sentiment is pretty negative. The critics are saying the thesis is breaking. What do they not understand?

**Michael Saylor** (0:53)
OK, first of all, you know, it's 137 days since the last all-time high. Four and a half months. Half the amount of time it takes to make a baby. Four and a half months. Now, we're off 45%, right? The all-time high is like 125, we're 67, you know, 67.5 or so. So, you know, there's a famous video of me in 2013 speaking about the virtues of the iPhone and Apple and it went viral for a while. There's not an eight-year-old on the planet that doesn't want an iPhone 5 And if you go back and you look at maybe the greatest company of our era, Apple, and the greatest stock, a stock that made people insanely rich. Apple releases the iPhone in 2007 The P to E of Apple is 30
The iPhone isn't a success for two years. Around 2009, on the iPhone 3, people start to think, and myself included, I didn't think the iPhone, the original iPhone 1 or 2 were that useful. There was no app store. There was no cut and paste. They were kind of toys. Around 2009, the iPhone starts working. It's iPhone 3 By 2012, they're around the iPhone 4 or iPhone 5 Everybody agrees it's a cool product. Apple stock peaks, then it crashes. Between late 2012 and May 2013, Apple stock falls 45%. The same 45% Bitcoins fall. The Apple PDE goes to 10 The Ford PDE less than 10 It's being valued like a tired cash cow utility company. Like, no technology, no future, people are down on it. You know how long it takes, Natalie, before Apple recovers to a PDE of 30 from 2013?

**Natalie Brunell** (3:00)
Years?

**Michael Saylor** (3:01)
Seven years.

**Natalie Brunell** (3:02)
Seven years.

**Michael Saylor** (3:03)
In 2020, Apple returns to a PDE of 30 So, it's 13 year cycle from 2007 to 2020 The greatest company of its era, you know, at many times, the most valuable company, the most successful product, the product that a billion people agree is, is something they can't live without. Maybe the most successful product in the history of the human race. Takes 13 years, peak to trough to peak, seven years to recover. And you know what it took for people to give Apple the PD of 30 again? The endorsement of Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett.

**Natalie Brunell** (3:47)
Wow.

**Michael Saylor** (3:47)
Two people who probably didn't even use the iPhone that much, if at all, you never would have read a review from Carl Icahn or Warren Buffett on the iPhone, did you? Like, are they at the top of your technology, you know, advocate list or a technology reviewer list? So that's an example of how conventional markets evaluate innovation. And here's the irony, right? At the point that I give that speech, you know, I'm saying, hey, this is an iPhone 5 There's not a six-year-old that doesn't want this iPhone 5
At the point I give the speech, there's general consensus that the iPhone is something you can't live without and no one's got a product nearly as good. And yet, the conventional market's counter-trading it. Okay, so if you got rich in the past decade, you probably bought Big Tech. You probably bought Apple. You probably bought Google. You probably bought Meta. Maybe you bought Amazon. Maybe you bought Nvidia. Maybe you bought Tesla. There's no way you got rich without buying Big Tech. Big Tech has been the primary screaming success. The stocks are up 10x, 20x, 30x, 50x. But in all cases, you find examples of the conventional market that under appreciates them and underestimates them. With Apple, it was seven years through the wilderness. With Amazon, I remember Amazon for something like four to eight years, conventional wisdom was Amazon's an awful company. They'll never make any money, they'll never amount to anything. You almost could have bought Amazon anytime for a decade, while conventional investors crapped all over it. And it wasn't until 2020 during the lockdown, so people go, oh, wow, I guess we need Amazon. And of course, just this last week, Amazon's revenue surpassed Walmart, and Amazon became the largest company in the world by revenue. But when could you have concluded Amazon was going to work? 2010, 2012 It was already obvious there was going to be no competitive Amazon. No one could possibly do what they were doing by 2012 Eight years later, you know, conventional wisdom is that. The same is true with Apple. It's like, so Bitcoin, at what point do you have the fundamental ability to conclude that Bitcoin is global digital capital? Now. Like, what's the indicia? The President of the United States is telling you, right? The head of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, is telling you. The head of the Treasury, Scott Bessend is telling you. The head of the SEC, the head of the CFTC, eight other cabinet members, you know. All the Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are telling you. BlackRock is telling you, right? My company is 100X its enterprise value, right?