Markets Respond Harshly To Kevin Warsh’s First FOMC!

**Ran Neuner** (0:02)
This morning, markets are responding to Kevin Warsh's first meeting as FOMC chair. Here's what the markets are doing. Bitcoin is at 64,481. Now, remember, it was at about 66,000 before the FOMC yesterday. You have the NASDAQ actually up 1.45 percent, or the NASDAQ futures actually up 1.45 percent. You have the S&P up 0.67 percent. You have the Dixie still above $100. And remember, that was at about $99, 99.5 before the FOMC.
Then you have gold down about $100 from the FOMC to 4,285. And you have Michael Saylor's STRC product at $89, $89.
Also, in response to the FOMC yesterday, the markets are now pricing in a rate cut as the Fed, a rate hike as the Fed's next move. And they're pricing it in as soon as the September meeting. Not the next meeting, but the meeting afterwards. The reaction from Trump, so not from markets, but from Trump was, well, Trump basically came out and he said, well, all right, whatever. He said, Trump said, it's fine, he held rates. He still thinks he's got the best person for the job, actually doing the job, and he expects rates to actually start coming down. So I wanna give you a quick summary, for those of you who missed the FOMC yesterday, I wanna give you a quick summary in less than 10 minutes of exactly what happened and why markets are responding the way that they're actually responding. If that sounds good to you, subscribe to the channel and hit the like button. This is our new channel, it's Crypto Insider. Crypto Insider is where we give you guys much more institutional content, so it's more long form interviews, institutional content, coverage of the FOMC and stuff like that.
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Also there's a free institutional style newsletter below, so if you want institutional style content below, you can get that for free. Anyway, let's turn our attention to what happened at the FOMC yesterday. And I want to say that Kevin Warsh came in there to make a statement. And his statement was that he was going to be different from Jerome Powell. And it was at every single element of the FOMC, right from the very beginning. You remember that when Powell used to stand up on the podium, he used to say, good afternoon. And so the polymarket odds of him saying good afternoon were very high. And he came in and that's where he started to make the statement. This is how he walked onto the podium.

**Kevin Warsh** (2:26)
Good day, it's a-

**Ran Neuner** (2:29)
So, good day. And he wanted to make a statement that he is not the same as Powell, and that everything is going to be different. And he continued to follow through with that statement. So he continued in the speech, and this is how he spoke about change.

**Kevin Warsh** (2:42)
Over the last two days, and frankly, the first three weeks I've been here, they've been very open about changes. Change isn't easy, change is filled with risk. But our number one goal is to get monetary policy right.

**Ran Neuner** (2:55)
So he came in, and his first message is that we're gonna make changes, and change isn't easy. And he kept the focus on inflation and monetary policy. And that was the beginning of the change. And I think if I were to characterize what happened for the rest of the FOMC meeting, I think the characterization that I would make is, it was an FOMC meeting that was full of change. If nothing else came out of it, it was completely full of change. Let's carry on and just see what else he did and where else the changes actually came in. So the first place that the changes came in is that the opening statement, the one that Powell used to read that said, good afternoon, the Fed has decided to keep rates at a certain level, well, he shortened it a lot. In fact, that is how long the opening statement was. I'm not going to read it to you, but that is the red line marker to show how much he has actually reduced the Fed's opening statement. And I think again, that was just the idea to show how serious he is about change. Let's talk about the actual, the nuts and bolts of the actual FOMC. So the first nut and bolt is they kept interest rates unchanged. And I think that that was, as the market expected, there was a 99.2% probability before the meeting that interest rates would remain unchanged and interest rates did remain unchanged. But there were a couple of things that actually did change. And to know what they were, you had to dig a little bit deeper into the text. Don't worry, I've done that for you. So the first thing is when you look at the dot plot, and remember the dot plot is when the Fed officials actually mark what their expectations are for interest rate hikes or cuts at the end of the year, what you can see is that they've become a lot more hawkish or a lot more bearish. You can see that one person says there's gonna be three hikes, these guys say there's gonna be two hikes, these guys say there's gonna be one hike. And so a lot of the Fed members are now looking for a hike as the next move. In fact, nine out of 18 officials see a hike, eight out of 18 officials see no change, and one sees a drop.