'Markets Are Very Very Overbought, We're Going To Have A Pullback' | Lance Roberts

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
As a contractor, I don't pay for materials I don't use. So why would I pay for stuff I don't need in my mobile plan? That's why the new MyBiz plan from Verizon Business is so perfect. Now I can choose exactly what I want, and I only pay for what I need.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:15)
Right now, with MyBiz plan, get our best price, as low as $25 a line. Visit verizon.com/business to get started today. Price per month with five plus lines includes auto pay and paper free billing and special intro offer discounts, taxes, fees, economic adjustment charge, and terms apply. Offers end June 10th, 2025

**SPEAKER_3** (0:30)
Out here, there's no one way of doing things. No unwritten rules, and no shortage of adventure. Because out here, the only requirement is having fun. Bank of America invites kids 6 to 18 to Golf with Us. For a limited time, sign them up for a free one-year membership, giving them access to discounted T-Tons at thousands of courses. Learn more at bankofamerica.com/golf with us. What would you like the power to do? Bank of America. Restrictions apply at cbofa.com/golf with us for complete details. Copyright 2025, Bank of America Corporation.

**Lance Roberts** (1:01)
We're going to have a correction. Markets are very, very overbought. You're going to have a pullback.

**Adam Taggart** (1:12)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you back here at the end of another week for another weekly market recap, featuring my good friend, portfolio manager and bond villain, Lance Roberts. Lance, how are you doing?

**Lance Roberts** (1:26)
I'm doing fine. How are you today, Adam?

**Adam Taggart** (1:28)
I'm doing great. Look, went with bond villain, because we're going to be talking about bonds today, both US bonds and Japanese bonds.

**Lance Roberts** (1:36)
It's a short conversation.

**Adam Taggart** (1:37)
It might be. Give me your best Dr. Evil answer to this question. How many assets in your management does RIA have?

**Lance Roberts** (1:45)
Right at 2 billion.

**Adam Taggart** (1:46)
No, you did it wrong. Supposed to use your little pinky, right?

**Lance Roberts** (1:51)
2 million.

**Adam Taggart** (1:55)
All right. Well, look, lots to talk about. And we are back-ended today, folks. So I'm going to be powering through a lot of topics quickly, unless the bond answer is indeed a very short one. Maybe that buys us some time, Lance. First off, folks, just want to thank you. I made a plea last week for you to help get my ex-account above 100,000 followers, which you did. So congratulations, folks. I appreciate the help there. And I will probably come back at you soon to do the same thing for my substack, but we'll save that for another video. All right, Lance, the big question that I think is on everybody's mind right now in terms of the stock market is we've seen a lot in the month of May of the market recovering the losses that it had in March and April. And so the big question everybody's mind right now is, okay, so was the whole March-April dip, was that just a correction in an otherwise continuing bullish uptrend or is what we're seeing here in May, a classic bear market rally, right? That gets everybody confident, gets them back in the pool and then pulls the rug out from under them.

**Lance Roberts** (3:08)
Well, you know, and you and I talked about this last week and I said that if the market can hold above the 200-day moving average this entire week, the correction is over. We've done that. Well, now we're talking Friday morning here and markets opened right at the 200-day moving average this morning, bounced off of that early going. So, but again, markets are really, really overbought here. So we're going to get a pullback. And just because we get a pullback doesn't mean it's a bear market rally. So it's just we've gone very far, very fast. You need a bit of a correction here. We've been taking profits over the last couple of days. We've raised cash levels to about 17% of the portfolio right now. Where we've taken our hedge, we had a short position that we've removed from the portfolio as well. So we're getting ready for this market to pull back a bit so that we can then take portfolio allocations back up to full weight.

**Adam Taggart** (3:57)
Okay, and maybe if you can, we might want to start pulling up the TA here, but let me preface this by saying, I've talked to a lot of technical analysts over the past week, and you always give us an update on these weekly recaps, and I'm looking forward to hearing your latest one in just a second. So talk to Sven Henrik, who basically I think said more or less the same thing I've heard you say in the past, Lance, which is this is the bull's market to lose at this point in time. Basically he says it's kind of do or die time for bears. If they're going to prove right here, it's got to be soon. He looked at a lot of the same indicators you did, and that if the bears don't prove it this weekish next week, then it's going to be clear sailing, he thinks. Now, I just interviewed Mark Newton, who works with Tom Lee at FunStrat. So probably not a shocker, but Mark thinks that things are going to be quite bullish from here through the fall.