MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us

**SPEAKER_2** (0:07)
This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices and other sophisticated investors.
Macro Voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics, telling it like it is, bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna.

**Erik Townsend** (0:32)
Macro Voices, episode 536 was produced on June 11th, 2026 I'm Erik Townsend.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis escalated this week, with President Trump's anticipated signing of a peace deal early this week, now a forgotten memory. Meanwhile, the stock market took an abrupt turn lower last Friday, and the selling continued on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Is this just a routine pullback to the 50-day moving average, or is it the start of something much bigger? To try to answer that question and several more, we're bringing back best-selling author and Bear Traps Report founder, Larry McDonald, who is this week's feature interview guest.
Larry and I will discuss what's driven this sell-off, whether the Iran conflict had anything to do with it, and where the opportunities lie in today's markets. Then be sure to stay tuned for our post-game segment for Patrick's Trade of the Week and our usual coverage of all the markets.

**Patrick Ceresna** (1:28)
I'm Patrick Ceresna with the Macro Scoreboard week over week as of the close of Wednesday, June 10th, 2026 The S&P 500 index down 379 basis points trading at 7267
We are seeing the first cracks in this bull advance as we're now testing the 50-day moving average. We'll take a closer look at that chart and the key technical levels to watch in the post-game segment. The US dollar index up 53 basis points trading at 100 spot 08, attempting a key bull breakout. The July WTI crude oil down 624 basis points trading at 90 spot 03, relentless grinding against this macro backdrop. The July RBOB gasoline down 64 basis points to 311 The August gold contract down 748 basis points trading at 4133 Gold experiencing a material breakdown to a multi-month low. The July copper contract down 354 basis points to 627 The June uranium contract down 116 basis points to 8490 And the US 10-year treasury yield up 5 basis points trading at 453 The key news to watch next week is the much anticipated FOMC for Warsh's first meeting as chair.
This week's feature interview guest is Larry McDonald. Erik and Larry discuss why markets may be entering a new inflation shock regime, how massive tech IPO supply and insider selling could pressure crowded growth stocks, and why investors may be starting to rotate from financial assets towards hard assets, value, healthcare, energy, and materials.
Erik's interview with Larry McDonald is coming up as Macro Voices continues right here at macrovoices.com.

**SPEAKER_2** (3:32)
And now with this week's special guest, here's your host, Erik Townsend.

**Erik Townsend** (3:37)
Joining me now is New York Times bestselling author and Bear Traps founder, Larry McDonald. Larry has prepared a slide deck as he usually does for us, registered users will find the link in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, just go to our homepage, macrovoices.com. Look for the red button above Larry's picture that says, looking for the downloads. Larry, it's great to get you back on the show. It's been way too long. I want to start with what is it exactly that started last Friday? Because it certainly seems to be the beginning of something significant in the markets. Is this the market finally waking up to the Iran conflict? Or is it a reaction to the jobs reports and maybe expectations of rate cuts being harder to come by? Or is it something else?
By all means, refer to the slide deck as we dive in.

**Larry McDonald** (4:26)
Sure. Yeah. It's definitely a fourth quarter 2021 redux, where everybody's been in a transitory trance. Inflation is transitory again, which we were in the fourth quarter of 2021
As you recall, the moment it appeared that inflation was not transitory, equities lost about 35-40 percent pretty quickly between 2021 and 22
The NASDAQ lost about $7-8 trillion of valuation. So you have a decent economy, but the Strait of Hormuz closed for 100 days, all this AI capex, and it's really just crushing the little guy as inflation is just so sticky. And you could see here on slide two, one of the things, Erik, I want to make very clear, there's no I in team. So as part of the Bear Traps Report, we host a conversation every day with the biggest hedge funds, mutual funds, and pension funds in the world. And what I'm going to do today is kind of share the insights, the valuable insights that I'm getting from the top institutions around the world in triangulating that information. And that's why I love this platform, because I want to democratize the information. I want your phenomenal audience to really have a front row seat as to what the top institutions are talking about. The biggest thing in recent weeks is the consumer, oil inflation. And you could see here on slide 2, junk bonds. The high-yield market as a whole is OK, but the tertiary parts. And these are typically the leading indicators. The tertiary part of the high-yield bond market, which is CCCs, as you can see, they're really kind of blowing out. The last time stocks were at the all-time highs, CCCs were much lower in yield. I think that's really telling you a lot about the consumer.