MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft

**SPEAKER_2** (0:07)
This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors.
Macro Voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics, telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna.

**Erik Townsend** (0:33)
Macro Voices episode 535 was produced on June 4th, 2026 I'm Erik Townsend.
Another week has passed, and the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, and I don't think we're any closer to a deal than we were a week ago. In fact, President Trump even made the comment that the US blockade of Iran could be lifted as soon as Labor Day. As soon as Labor Day? That's 95 days from now, more than a quarter of a year away.
The only good news I can see in the geopolitical front is that the situation has earned you another Macro Voices double header. Rubble bank strategist Michael Every is our headliner this week, and Michael and I will discuss all things Iran, from geopolitics to the inflation outlook, to what it means for China, to President Trump and Secretary Bessent's stablecoin statecraft ambitions. Then commodity context founder Rory Johnston returns to go deep on crude oil delivery logistics, from a detailed look at the latest flow stats to China's curious inventory and import statistics that don't frankly seem to add up, and why oil prices haven't reacted nearly as much as so many analysts, including Rory and I, expected them to. Then be sure to stay tuned for our post-game segment when Patrick's Trade of the Week will explore a setup built around Michael Every's view that economic policy is shifting toward economic statecraft, with a greater focus on rebuilding the physical economy and strategic industrial capacity. Then we'll have our usual coverage of all the markets with Patrick's post-game chart tick.

**Patrick Ceresna** (2:12)
And I'm Patrick Ceresna with the Macro Scoreboard Week Over Week as of the close of Wednesday, June 3rd, 2026 The S&P 500 index up 44 basis points, trading at 75.53. Markets remain along highs, but showing early signs of exhaustion. We'll take a closer look at that chart and the key technical levels to watch in the post-game segment. The US dollar index up 20 basis points, trading at 99.55.
It's attempting to break out of a one-month trade range established through the previous month of May. The July WTI crude oil contract up 828 basis points, trading at 96.02. The July Arbob gasoline contract up 229 basis points, trading at 313
The August gold contract down 31 basis points, trading at 4467
The July copper contract up 252 basis points, trading at 650 And the June uranium contract up 94 basis points, trading at 8590 The US 10-year treasury yield down 3 basis points, trading at 448 And the key news to watch this Friday is the jobs numbers, and next week we have the much anticipated CPI and PPI inflation numbers and the ECB rate statement and press conference. This week's feature interview guest is Michael Every. Erik and Michael discuss why the Iranian crisis may be a part of a much broader shift towards economic statecraft, how energy, swap lines, stable coins and supply chains are becoming tools of a national strategy, and why the next policy regime may focus more on rebuilding the physical economy. Erik's interview with Michael Every is coming up as Macro Voices continues right here at macrovoices.com.

**SPEAKER_2** (4:17)
And now, with this week's special guest, here's your host, Erik Townsend.

**Erik Townsend** (4:23)
Joining me now is Rabobank's global strategist for economics and markets, Michael Every. Michael, it's great to get you back on the show. I'm sure you've heard the great news today, and we are recording just so our listeners will know, on Monday afternoon, so three days before this episode will air. A lot can happen in the news flow lately, but as of Monday afternoon, the news is President Trump says, don't worry, everything's all set. Oil prices are about to drop like a rock and time is on our side. Do you concur, sir?

**Michael Every** (4:55)
No, I don't think that time is on anyone's side, first of all. I think that's true for every human being throughout history, that time doesn't work in our favor. Entropy is a universal truth. But specifically, that news flow, of course, that we had on the Monday, as we're speaking, was superseded within, I think, about an hour and a half, two hours maximum, where we went from a tweet saying, okay, Iran doesn't want to talk, that's fine. We don't have to talk. Maybe we've done too much talking. I'll just maintain the blockade. To then suddenly backpedaling and saying, well, no, the reason for Iran not talking is because Israel was still moving against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and now I'm telling Israel, they can't move against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah have promised they're going to stop attacking Israel, pinky swear, and therefore everything should continue, and we're going to continue talking to Iran.