MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment

**SPEAKER_1** (0:07)
This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices and other sophisticated investors.
Macro Voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics, telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna.

**Erik Townsend** (0:33)
Macro Voices Episode 528 was produced on April 16th, 2026 I'm Erik Townsend. We've got another Macro Voices doubleheader lined up for you this week. Forrest for the Trees founder, Luke Gromen returns as this week's feature interview guest. Luke and I will discuss the Iran crisis, its knock on effects and what it will mean for inflation looking ahead.
Luke's interview was recorded on Monday afternoon, and since the time of that recording, there's been quite a bit of news flow.
The market seems to be celebrating an all-clear signal that the Iran crisis is finally over. But hold on, commodity context founder Rory Johnston will be joining me for a second Iran update interview recorded late Wednesday afternoon. And Rory says it ain't over till it's over. While markets are clearly celebrating the perception of a final resolution, Rory will explain that while quite a few smaller ships have transited the strait, no VLCCs have passed since Saturday before the peace talks collapsed. Then be sure to stay tuned for our postgame segment, when Patrick's Trade of the Week will look at how to position in bonds for both near-term inflation risk and potential growth slowdown using a structured options trade to navigate that sequence. And then we'll have our usual coverage of all the markets with Patrick's postgame chart deck.

**Patrick Ceresna** (1:54)
And I'm Patrick Ceresna with the Macro Scoreboard, week over week as of the close of Wednesday, April 15th, 2026 The S&P 500 index up 355 basis points, trading at 7023 An impressive short squeeze to the upside on the markets. We'll take a closer look at that chart and the key technical levels to watch in the postgame segment. The US dollar index down 101 basis points to 9805
The May WTI crude oil contract down 330 basis points, trading at 9129
Over $20 of risk premium has been pulled out of the markets on hope of a peace deal. The June RBOB gasoline up 238 basis points, trading at 301 The June gold contract up 98 basis points, trading at 4824
The May copper contract is up 537 basis points to 608, trading back toward its 52 week highs. April uranium up 94 basis points, trading to 8620 The US 10 year treasury yield down 1 basis point, trading at 428 The key news to watch next week is the retail sales, and we enter the heart of earning season.
This week's feature interview guest is Forest for the Trees founder, Luke Gromen. Eric and Luke discussed the escalating risks around the Strait of Hormuz, why supply chain disruptions may be far more severe than markets or pricing, and the potential for non-linear break in global logistics, and how the interaction between inflation, fiscal stress, and bond markets could drive the next major macro regime shift. And stay tuned for a special follow up with Rory Johnson, where we break down the geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the implications for global energy markets. Eric's interview with Luke Gromen is coming up as Macro Voices continues right here at macrovoices.com.

**SPEAKER_1** (4:10)
And now, with this week's special guest, here's your host, Erik Townsend.

**Erik Townsend** (4:15)
Joining me now is Forrest for the Trees founder, Luke Gromen. Luke, we're recording this on Monday afternoon. That's only three days before our listeners will hear it. There could have been two or three wars between now and then. At the rate things are going.
Why don't we start with a recap of your understanding and your perception of the current situation with the Iran conflict and what it means to markets. And listeners, obviously, please understand that we have to record in advance of airing this. The news flow is coming pretty fast, so it may have changed by the time you hear this.

**Luke Gromen** (4:50)
Fast and furious indeed. Now, thanks for having me on again, Erik. I appreciate it. For me, I think this is simultaneously, at the moment, both the easiest and the hardest macro event to trade in quite some time. And the reason I say that is, it's the easiest because it's a one factor market, in my opinion. Is Hormuz open or is Hormuz closed? And as long as it's still closed, we are accelerating nonlinearly toward a really bad outcome. And if it reopens, then we can kind of start looking at secondary and tertiary explanations, outcomes, et cetera. As things stand now, you know, Hormuz, when this war started, it was supposed to be a weekend and then maybe a week and then maybe a couple of weeks and then a month. And it was supposed to be open quickly. And when it started, my worst case scenario was that this could end up being a US Suez 1956 moment. And now, seven weeks in, Hormuz is still closed. Supply chain issues are just now really starting to stack up. Whether you look at social unrest over fuel in Ireland, you look at, I thought, an interesting data point today. Toto, the Japanese toiletry maker or toilet maker, had to stop taking new orders for lack of raw materials and the stock was down 7% today. So I think the base case now for me is that this is a US Suez 1956 moment where until Hormuz reopens, I think supply chains are going to keep getting worse exponentially from here. I think we still have, at some point, that's going to matter even more to the sovereign bond markets, particularly in the West. You're already seeing Japanese bond yields. The US has had, I think, two or three different Trump tacos once the tenure has hit 4.4%.