Longtime Bull Sees "High" Risk Of Market Correction Soon | Darius Dale

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**Darius Dale** (1:00)
We still think the risk of a 1998 style correction in markets is still pretty high over the next one to two quarters.

**Adam Taggart** (1:12)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart. And I'm very excited for today's discussion.
It's with the great Darius Dale, who is now coming on the program with a greater cadence, which I think is fantastic, both for me personally, but also for this whole audience here. Darius, thanks so much for joining us, folks.

**Darius Dale** (1:29)
Adam, it's so great to be here. Last time I was on the program, I was complimenting on your cheekbones, man. They look even more radiating, man. You look great, man. You look like awesome weight, and I'm really proud of you.

**Adam Taggart** (1:40)
Well, you're very kind, and we spent a little bit of time before we turned the camera on talking about it. And look, I mean, you're an athlete. I mean, geez, you were college football.

**Darius Dale** (1:50)
Stars, some people would say.

**Adam Taggart** (1:52)
Yeah, remind me that. Were you an offensive lineman, defense? No.

**Darius Dale** (1:56)
Left tackle.

**Adam Taggart** (1:57)
Left tackle. Okay. I mean, you're just a beast. And I've met you in person. You're clearly a great athlete. And it's really fun to be able to share that side of this. And folks, there is a commonality that I find here in the macro world is that the people who I think are the sharpest minds on investing in finances tend to also be folks who are very focused on the important things in life to invest in, whether it's your health, whether it's your family, whether it's just living with purpose. And Darius, you embody all of those, my friend. All right. Look, so we get a lot to get into and you've got your slides. We'll pull those up when it makes sense. If you don't mind, there's a lot we can talk about, but I'd like to start on a topic that we talked about last time in Iran, where you said that if the Kevin Warsh Fed decides to look through the inflationary impulse from the high oil prices caused by the Iran War, then you thought things were going to get really bullish for the markets. And we did have the Fed meet the other week, and Warsh did beat his chest and kind of deliver his Mario Draghi, I'm going to do whatever it takes speech. But in this case, it wasn't around stimulating the economy, it was around doing hiking as high as he's going to need to to tame inflation. But he didn't actually hike.
And I think a big reason for that was because oil had started coming down. But then a few days before the Fed meeting, the MOU between the US and Iran was announced. And I think that gave him the ability to say, okay, even though I'm talking tough, I don't need to hike right now.
What is your interpretation of all that? Is that to you signaling that the Fed may actually indeed look through the inflation here and not end up hiking eventually?

**Darius Dale** (3:48)
Yeah, excellent question. Again, always great to be here, man. Thanks for having me. So the first thing I will say is, I think that Kevin Warsh and his colleagues on the FOMC made the appropriate choice to withhold hold off on hiking a couple of weeks ago. The reason why is because they want to buy themselves time to actually discern how much inflation is being driven by, let's say, the energy supply shock and the resulting price increase that we saw from that, which is obviously reversed materially in recent weeks, versus how much of this inflation pressure is being driven by, let's call it non-energy related dynamics, more core dynamics, the core drivers of inflation.