LIVE FOMC: Kevin Warsh Speaks

**Ran Neuner** (0:00)
All right, we're one minute away from the drop of the new FOMC.
The Kevin Warsh's first FOMC. We're gonna be bringing you live coverage tonight, here of the FOMC. And I'm seeing the news starting to come through. Obviously, rates remain unchanged. Let's see as we are feeding this through. So, Fed lowers the median, hold on, here we go. Let's start feeding off the FOMC. Fed lowers median 2026 GDP projection to 2.2 from 2.4%. That's the first bit of news we've heard from the Fed. I've got Scott Melker here with me. We're going to be breaking down everything that's happening here on the FOMC. Scott, it's like a different FOMC here today, not the old Jerome Powell FOMC, right?

**Scott Melker** (0:39)
Yeah, completely different. And I think that he'll be on kind of a longer leash. But it's going to be interesting to see how long he remains on that leash. But I don't think we're going to get much from Warsh like we did from Powell. And I think the expectations are going to be relatively tight-lipped.

**Ran Neuner** (0:53)
So that's what he said. He said he wants to talk less and he wants to do more. Nick Timares just came out and said, very hawkish dotplot. Nine out of the 18 officials have at least one hike this year and six of those nine have multiple hikes. Only one person has a cut this year and only one participant, presumably Warsh, didn't even submit an SEP. And so how the market is responding to this, Bitcoin is actually fairly stable. Let's look at the S&P 500
S&P 500 is fairly stable. The market's actually a little bit unfazed by this. I guess that they are looking to see what he does when he actually gets on the stage.

**Scott Melker** (1:35)
I think so. I also think that the expectation was that he would do nothing in this meeting and he's effectively done nothing. I think it is really interesting that he eliminated the dot plot and is effectively refusing to do it. I think he's the first since Bernanke to do that. I mean, you've got decades of this being sort of the standard for how these meetings are approached.
And I have mixed feelings about it, I guess, because I think that people deserve to see data, but I don't trust government data and it's always wrong. So to present wrongs and allow markets to respond to it doesn't make much sense either.

**Ran Neuner** (2:09)
So let's read what he said. He said, if you're not very good at something, you should do less of it, he said, at a state street conference a year ago. According to remarks reviewed by Wall Street, these forecasts have been abysmal. My dots wouldn't be perfect either. I wouldn't even give them. That's basically what his attitude is as it relates to the dot plot today.
He says, stop talking so much, more thinking, less talking, but then at the same time, I don't know if you saw, but he actually hired, his first hire when he actually got to the Fed, I wanna read you this, is actually one of George Bush's scriptwriters, believe it or not. That was the first person that he hired when he actually got to the Fed. So he's gonna say less, but every word's gonna count, that's for sure.

**Scott Melker** (2:51)
Yeah, I'm just curious the way he's gonna present things, and if markets are gonna actually react to his sneezes, and which hand he holds his briefcase in, or if he turns his head at the wrong moment, or winks, because that's how we've done it with Powell and previous chairman, or if he's gonna really just completely eliminate the idea that what he says is so important in the short term, which I think is what he's effectively saying by not offering a top lot, right? I think every guy is gonna be, hey, we're doing what's best right now. I'll call me in a couple months, and I'll let you know.

**Ran Neuner** (3:23)
So what I want to do is I want to look, I haven't refreshed the screen since before the FOMC meeting. So as you can see, before we were walking into FOMC, the next move by the Fed was forecast at, in January 2027, on the 27th of January 2027, and it was a rate hike, but only marginally. The difference was between 37 and 42 So now what I'm going to do is I'm going to refresh this to see what happened after the dot plot here. So let's quickly have a look here after the dot plot, and let's just see how that's changed. Sorry, we are waiting on it. Okay, so that's, I guess a lot of people are going to the site. Let's go to the probability site.