Labor Market Cracks, Wild Fed Credibility Data and Semis Running Out of Pie | Last Call

**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
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**Andy Constan** (0:30)
Honey, what are you listening to?

**SPEAKER_3** (0:32)
Mom.

**SPEAKER_4** (0:34)
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**SPEAKER_5** (1:00)
We are excited to announce the launch of a new podcast, Last Call. While many market rap shows can cover the same ground, we wanted to try something different. We wanted to get away from what the market did in the past month, and instead bring in some of our friends who offer truly unique perspectives and data, and we wanted to have some fun along the way. In our latest episode, we talked to Ben Hunt about the big change in Fed narrative, Andy Constan about why there might not be enough pie for the semiconductor stocks, Brent Kochuba about the flows in the market behind the scenes, and Eric Pachman about employment data and crack spreads. You can subscribe to Last Call on all major podcast platforms using the links in this episode description. Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoy the show.

**Andy Constan** (1:29)
That future earnings growth is oversubscribed. There's too many people that, too many stocks that expect massive earnings growth, and there's just not enough pie for all of them to be successful.

**Ben Hunt** (1:44)
This is a wild chart, right? The losing credibility narrative has gone away from this time a year ago, and the gaining credibility narrative, the dark blue on this map, it's now positive.

**Brent Kochuba** (2:02)
The issue is the rate of change is unsustainable, right? Like, how much longer can you keep going up in the queues at 2% per day, right? That is not sustainable.
It all gets priced in at some point.

**Eric Pachman** (2:14)
The crack spread does not lie, but it is the truth. It is telling you, is the right type of oil making it to the right place.

**Matt Zeigler** (2:31)
This is Excess Returns, you're watching Last Call. This is the show where we look back over the month that was in an attempt to look forward. I'm Matt Zeigler, joined as always by Jack Forehand. Jack, how's it going?

**Jack Forehand** (2:43)
It's going well.
My private jet has pretty much been parked this month, Matt. I've been working so much. The thing, we got off into the video, but it hasn't been happening in reality.

**Matt Zeigler** (2:51)
Hasn't been happening in reality. And the way reality feels. Did I just introduce that we're talking about the last quarter? Is that where my brain is right now? The last month was the last quarter of life, right?

**Jack Forehand** (3:01)
It's all the same thing at this point, isn't it? I mean, did anything different happen in the last month, in the last quarter? I mean, they seem like the same thing.

**Matt Zeigler** (3:06)
I'll tell you what happened. I know we're gonna get into it in a second here. What happened is a company finally went public that we've been waiting forever to go public, and they basically promised in their S1 that their TAM was space and time. So I'm gonna blame the last month feeling like the last quarter, if not the last quarter century, on we finally IPO'd space and time. Is that a get out of jail card for this?

**Jack Forehand** (3:29)
Yeah, I think so, and now my TAM for this is all of YouTube. So cooking shows and stuff, we're coming for you, Matt. If you're watching YouTube, you want to watch us analyze the markets.

**Matt Zeigler** (3:38)
If we are not the Martha Stewart and Snoop Dogg of finance, I don't know what we are.

**Jack Forehand** (3:43)
Alton Brown's got nothing on us, Matt. Besides a better personality and a much larger audience, but other than that, he's got nothing on us.