JPMorgan Says 7,800: Should You Believe Price Targets?

**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
This is Invest Talk, from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time. Here's your host, Luke Guerrero.

**Luke Guerrero** (0:16)
Good afternoon, fellow investors, and thank you for joining me for our last episode of Invest Talk of the Month, because today is Tuesday, June 30th, 2026, and we are about to dive in to the second half of the year. Before we go forward, I do want to mention and thank all those who participated in our wealth webinar today, Beyond the Yield.
If you, for whatever reason, couldn't make it, it will be available at a later time on our YouTube channel. We had a great discussion about how you can position your portfolio for your income needs, and as always, answered finance and investment questions. With that being said, in just a bit, we will talk about today's market performance and run down those show topics. But why don't we kick it off by tackling a fresh-collar question now.

**SPEAKER_3** (1:12)
Hey guys, calling in on a stock ticker, MELI, been accumulating it over the past two months. I know it's had a recent pullback and seems to have found some support. What do you attribute the recent pullback to? And do you believe that this is a good level to DCA into the stock?
Wait and listen to your answer in the show. Appreciate everything you do. Thanks.

**Luke Guerrero** (1:37)
MELI is MercadoLibre, Inc. It looks like it's a Latin American e-commerce and fintech platform. So their business segments looks like 44 percent of the revenue comes from consumer services, about 23 percent from financial services, then another 20 percent from credit. One thing I like right off the bat, you are getting international exposure here. About 21 percent of the revenue is from Argentina, 53 percent of the revenue is from Brazil, 22 percent of the revenue is from Mexico. Now recently, looks like year to date, this name is down about 15.73 percent. It's down 35 percent over the past 52 weeks. That's really in spite of revenue being up 49 percent year over year. It looks like they had their fastest growth since Q2 of 2022 In fact, they beat estimates by 6.76 percent. Total payment volume was up 50 percent year over year.
Looks like gross merchandise volume was up 42 percent year over year, but it wasn't all good. For Q1 2026 earnings, earnings per share missed by 12 percent. 12 percent. Net income, their operating income margin down 600 basis points or 6 percent year over year. And that is one of the reasons why this thing dropped off. Now, not all companies give guidance. This one is not one that gives formal guidance. But what they did talk about was an increase in capex. And it looks like they also talked about a decrease in consensus earnings. So here's what you have here. You have a company that says it's gonna spend more money at the same time that margins are falling. And if this was a one-off, okay, that'll be fine. This is in fact the fourth consecutive earnings per share miss. And put on top of that, you got some warnings about credit bubble risk because they have non-performing loan provisions doubling year over year. I don't know, it is tough, right? It is in a lot of ways maybe think early Amazon, but focused on Latin America. It's the cheapest valuation it's been for the past couple of years. I mean, it still sits at 35 times price for forward-looking earnings, but the average is 68.8 over the past five years. So it's cheaper than it has been even if it's not cheap. And their FinTech ecosystem, it's still growing. Looks like it's up 77% year over year in AUM growth. But I don't know, when you have this many consecutive misses and earnings as well as informal guidance downward, a bit of a dangerous entry. I like the thoughts, I like the idea, I like the theme. But until I see better execution, I would hesitate to enter this name. That is MercadoLibre, ticker MELI.
All right, folks, we had a great show yesterday where we looked into what the biggest risks are from this SpaceX IPO. We also answered a fresh listener question on the S&P 500 It was submitted via live call from a listener in St. Louis.
Now, if you missed yesterday's episode, I encourage you to go check it out. And remember, the best way to never miss an episode of Invest Talk is to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Now, on to the matter at hand, which is our discussion today, our main focus point, really focused on price targets.