It's Do Or Die Time For Bears | Sven Henrich

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**Sven Henrich** (0:58)
Bulls are back in control. What that principally tells me from a control perspective is that bears have now to prove their case. Because if they cannot get back below this, it's over. And this kind of bullish outlook, and we're at 4% from all time highs, we could easily go back up there.

**Adam Taggart** (1:34)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money host and founder, Adam Taggart. I am very excited for today's guest. When you have markets like the ones we've had, that have been up and down and kind of all over the place, it gets harder to guide by the fundamentals, and you have to really trust more the indicators that are on your dashboard. Really, the technical analysis becomes a lot more important in market environments like this. So, I thought, let's bring in the best technical analyst in the business. Today's guest is Sven Henrich. Sven, how are you, my friend?

**Sven Henrich** (2:09)
Hey, Adam, great to be with you, and thanks for the kind introduction. It's been a wild year again so far, hasn't it?

**Adam Taggart** (2:17)
It really has, and I went back in preparation for this interview, Sven, and rewatched your video from the Thoughtful Money Fall Conference, which was in mid-March, and at that time, you were saying, hey, this is really timely because we're getting a lot of volatility. It's been kind of a crazy year so far. I think the market heard you and said, okay, Sven, hold my beer.
So anyways, I know following you on X, you've been tracking things incredibly closely. But yeah, we had a pronounced decline in the market, and then Trump came out on Liberation Day with his massive poster board, and sent the markets plunging even further after that. A lot of people were concerned that this was going to be another 2022 year or worse. But here we are. Markets are now green on the year just a few weeks later. So we've kind of done a round trip. If you fell asleep in early March and woke up just now, you wouldn't think anything had happened. So we're going to get to your charts and whatnot. But before we get to the specifics, what's your takeaway as a seasoned market veteran, a tracker of market activity? What's your opinion of 2025 so far?

**Sven Henrich** (3:31)
Well, market the return of the market's cynic. I mean, it's interesting to watch. I mean, obviously, we have an incredible news flow that has thrown people back and forth on a loop. The intraday volatility, we've seen this year at some stage, was unmatched in what we've seen in many, many years, along with macroeconomic uncertainty introduced by the terrorist schemes, obviously, during the Liberation Day, as you just referenced. But the cynic in me is also looking at this just purely technically in context of the fifth year of the 10-year cycle that we've been discussing a few times.
None of us can ever predict the twists and turns or the various plots in a particular movie, but the answers always seems to be the same. At the end, bears cry, right? I mean, that's what we just saw. Of course, there's a lot of legitimate reasons to be concerned about the fallout out of all of this, from a macro perspective. And, you know, they always have the notion of, is it a bear market rally, or is it another V, many of which we've seen in the past before.
And I think we all, and this is what I said back in Marshall's set, at the beginning of the year, we got to stay super open minded in terms of how this can all evolve, because there's a lot of different factors at play. I will take one note in particular, and I'll emphasize that with a chart in a bit, is that when push comes to shove and it doesn't matter who's in charge, when the market gets to a point of really breaking down, there is some sort of magic save.