Is the India Stock Market a Smart Bet in 2026? Record Forex Reserves vs. the Growth Gap

**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
This is InvestTalk from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time. Here's your host, Luke Guerrero.

**Luke Guerrero** (0:17)
Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome to the Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026 edition of InvestTalk.
I'm your host, Luke Guerrero, and I'll be with you over the next 45, 50, let's call it an even hour, while we dissect the market today, talk about the stories that matter, and most importantly, answer your burning of finance and investment questions. To that end, before we do anything else, why don't we tackle our first caller question now?

**SPEAKER_3** (0:51)
Hey, good evening. This is Mark calling from New York.

**SPEAKER_4** (0:54)
Appreciate everything that you guys do.
I had a question on stock ticker HOOD, Robinhood. Looking to potentially take a position here. There's twice point, I'm wondering what you guys thought. Thank you. Appreciate everything you do again.

**Luke Guerrero** (1:09)
Ticker HOOD is Robinhood Markets. It is maybe one of the first brokerages to bring trading directly to one's phone, that you can buy and sell equities, options, you do crypto, you can do banking. I think a couple of years ago, must have been a couple of years ago at this point, they released a credit card with a credit card rewards program. I think they have prediction markets. It aimed to and did a pretty good job of attacking and soliciting itself, marketing itself to a younger generation. Now, you can say, okay, a lot of that's turned investing into gambling, but that's not the question here. The question is, is this a good investment? On its face, it's had a pretty good quarter. Revenue was up 32% year over year, came in at 1.3 billion, beating an estimate of 1.25. Earnings per share crushed in Q2 at 62 cents, with a range was 41 to 42 cents.
They added 1 million customers. It was the largest quarterly gain in five years. And platform assets rounded out near, it looks like 400 billion. Same time, they announced they were expanding tokenization of stocks through the end of the year. We've talked about that on the show before. Their full year OPEX was lowered, which is certainly something we see as well. It leaves new, or rather at least more money available, capital available to return to shareholders. But in spite of all of this, during the most recent earnings announcement, stock fell, drifted lower afterwards, despite that blowout beat. And it's down 5.4% year to date. That's after clawing back a significant portion of its market cap over the past three months, up 21.36%.
Now, one of the reasons why I think that's the case, they have a lot of volatility in their revenue. You know, they have solid core businesses, but their crypto revenue specifically is kind of all over the place.
It's down 47% in Q1. And so with any company that has uncertain revenue streams, investors just don't want to pay crazy, crazy multiples. I mean, their price to forelooking earnings is 39.9 times. That's very expensive. Now, it's not as expensive as its five-year average of about 85.8 times, but it's still really, really expensive.
You know, I think it's interesting. Anytime the market sells off, when a company seems to be firing on all fronts, and I think from a quarterly earnings perspective, they are, but is it sustainable?
I think that the market is signaling, maybe not. So, on the back of a blood earnings where, yes, there was a drop-off and then a subsequent gain over the past couple months, I would be worried you see a bit more downside risk here, given elevated valuations and volatile revenue. So, for me, at least right now, I would pass. That is ticker HOOD.
Thanks for the call. We got a lot of ground to cover in the next 45 minutes or so, but I do want to point out, yesterday, we had another great show. We looked into how to invest in AI infrastructure and who really wins, given that big tech seemingly is going all in. We also answered plenty of listener questions, including one on Sinclair Corporation, ticker D-I-N-O.
If you want to hear the answer to that question or our topic on AI, I encourage you to check out yesterday's episode. Remember, the best way to never miss an episode of Invest Talk is to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Today, we have yet another important story. We're going to venture outside of the United States and talk a little bit about India because there's a question on my mind. Is the India stock market a smart bet for the rest of 2026? We are seeing record 4X reserves versus bit of a growth gap. India just hit a record 729 billion in foreign exchange reserves. A number that sounds impressive, but new analysis shows Modi's developed nation ambitions. They're straining against persistent growth gaps. So with Indian bank stock showing wild pricing anomalies under a new auction system, the world's most hyped emerging market might deserve a reality check. We also got a couple more stories to bring you, including one on hiking rates into hiring freeze, because we just got ADP data. Also got another one on the equity risk premium and how it's the lowest it's been in quite some time. And should we have time at the end of the show, we'll touch on the jobs market and how healthcare is doing relative to every other sector being negative. We also have some voice bank calls ready to play, including one on investing at KPP Financial. Should be an interesting one. And another at about GEV, that is GE Vernova Inc, as well as some questions that came in from the comment section of the InvestTalk YouTube channel. We're headed into a break. It is a quick one. Please remember, you can call any time and leave your questions on the InvestTalk voice bank. And if you're listening via our live stream or on AM 1220 in the Bay Area, you can pick up that phone and dial 888-99-CHARGE to ask your question live. When we come back, we'll talk about today's market activity.