Is It Time to Accumulate Altcoins for The Next Bull Run?

**Jamie Coutts** (0:00)
There's been a siphoning of capital away for very good reasons, but that capital is going to flow back into blockchains and cryptos, as soon as the block space starts to get filled up, and the houses are going to be filled up. We've got tokenization that's going to increase a lot of activity, and then the AI agents eventually will also start to arrive as well. So that's how I sort of see the interplay. These two things are so interlinked and married to each other. It hasn't shown up in the data, but it's clear that that's the direction.

**John Gill** (0:26)
Bitcoin is putting in a bear market pump and most analysts are fading, but is that itself the signal to start accumulating? And if so, which tokens should you be watching? Hello and welcome to The Milk Road Show, the podcast that knows that picking tops and bottoms is impossible, but it never stops anyone from trying. I'm your host, John Gill, and today is Wednesday, July 22nd, and we will be releasing this episode on Friday the 24th. Today we are joined by Jamie Coutts. Jamie is the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision and a longtime friend of Milk Road. Jamie has spent over 20 years in TradFi and he built Bloomberg Intelligence's first crypto research product. Now, Jamie is going to share his latest research on crypto with all of us. You're excited for some good alpha on this episode. Make sure you like and subscribe. Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. Just as a reminder, our podcast today is free and that would not be possible without our wonderful sponsors and partners at Securitize, the regulated rails for tokenization, and Bitget Stocks 2 with real liquidity, real dividends. Keep an ear out for some more information about both of our great sponsors later in the show. Without further ado, welcome back to The Milk Road Show. Jamie, how are you, sir?

**Jamie Coutts** (1:29)
I'm doing well, John. Nice to see you again.

**John Gill** (1:31)
Yeah. Nice talk to you too, man. It's been a while. I'm really excited to catch up. Bitcoin is trading at around 65k right now. I thought a good place to start the conversation would be with your most recent research report, which was titled Counter Trend, Not Corner Turned. I wonder if you could give us an overview of your outlook in this report and just how you're seeing the markets right now.

**Jamie Coutts** (1:50)
Yeah. Thanks, John. Look, I mean, as analysts, and you have daily guests on talking about tops and bottoms and picking tops and bottoms, and that's why we're in the game, to try and get those calls right. But I think the best way to look at it, if you're a medium to long-term investor, is just look at a probabilistic framework. The best way to do that still remains to be price-driven. When I look at the price action of Bitcoin and the rest of the digital asset space today, there's evidence that the bottom is forming, but there has to be a clear inflection point in terms of the momentum and the trend. It comes back down to the supply-demand.
Just a real vision, we've got inflection points that we've used for quite a while to understand when that supply-demand equation has flipped, or the probabilities, I should say, because nothing's definite, but the probabilities are more in favor of a reversal of the current trend. So Bitcoin is 65,000, as you said.
It's been in the 60s since February, since we had that capitulation low. Well, I call it a capitulation low because a lot of the indicators and the markers that I used to define bottoms, come with capitulation markers, and a lot of them fired in February. I'll get into the reasons why I didn't feel that it was going to be the definitive bottom. But since then, we've been sort of tracking sideways, more or less, within a very defined range. We've had one counter trend rally of about 30 percent, which is normal for Bitcoin bear markets. And so until we see a reversal, and my levels are sort of now at around the high 70s, that the trend has to reflect higher than that to show that the actual trend is reversed. So what I'm just saying in this latest report is that there is plenty of evidence building. And if you're a short-term trader, you might want to actually take those signals. But look, if you're thinking about it on a medium to long-term basis, and you're not trying to time the next couple of months, then there's still a little bit more evidence that needs to form that we've actually reflected higher and we're in a new bull market. Certainly a lot of evidence is building and has been building.