Is America Becoming a Rogue State?

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**Ravi Agrawal** (0:32)
Hi, I'm Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy's Editor-in-Chief. This is FP Live.
So the Iran War has become the most serious foreign policy challenge for Donald Trump in his second term. However, loyalists justify it. The reality is that the war is unpopular. It breaks several domestic and international laws, and it is very costly. My guest today says the Iran War proves the point he's been making for a while, that the United States is increasingly acting like a rogue state, a predatory hegemon. The question then is what kind of damage this can cause and what countries can do about it. That's coming up, but first, I wanted to share my read on a very important development this past weekend. Hungary had elections.
On its own, Hungary is not that significant. It has a population of less than 10 million. It sits outside the top 50 economies in the world. But it is geopolitically significant. It's in the EU, and Hungary's leader of the past 16 years, Viktor Orban, has frequently played spoiler in the EU, for example, by vetoing military aid to Ukraine. Unlike most European leaders, Orban has also openly aligned himself with Russia's Vladimir Putin, with China's Xi Jinping, and notably with Donald Trump's MAGA movement.
So this was an election we were all watching very closely, especially with news early on that Orban was trailing in the polls. And as it turns out, despite near total media dominance, despite alleged vote buying, and despite his extreme gerrymandering, Orban and his Fidesz party crashed to defeat on Sunday. The winner was Tisza party leader Peter Magyar, a former Fidesz party insider who has distanced himself from Orban.
The results are resonating globally in part because Orbanism has often been cited as a template for other aspiring autocrats and kleptocrats. And there are indeed lessons to learn from his ouster. Economics matters. You can't govern badly forever and expect people to not notice. Infrastructure matters. You can't ignore basic metrics of how you compare with your neighbors on health care or quality of life and not expect your people to care. And corruption is very unpopular. People hate kleptocracies and ultimately they do rise up.
All of this provides some hope for people in countries that face similar issues.
But I'd also offer two quick words of caution. First, many autocrats or kleptocrats have already decided they don't want Orban's fate, and so they deal with any dissent with an iron fist. Think of Myanmar, North Korea, or even Iran more recently. Orban's ouster will only confirm their instincts. And second, we are all thankful that Orban conceded defeat. But we should also beware. If the basic quality of life doesn't improve significantly and quickly in Hungary, Orban could easily pave the way for his return in the future. Miss me much? It is a familiar story in politics. We'll leave some further reading in the show notes.
Okay, on to this week's interview. We've long been trying to understand Trump as someone who is transactional. That remains the case. But my guest today argues that Trump has fewer checks and balances in his second term, and is showcasing a misplaced sense of confidence in his grasp of world affairs. So much so that he sees America as becoming a rogue state. What does that do to American power longer term? How can the world respond? Let's hear it from Stephen Walt. He's a columnist for us at Foreign Policy, and a professor of International Relations at Harvard University. Let's dive in.
Steve, welcome back to FP Live.

**Stephen M. Walt** (4:52)
Nice to be with you, Ravi.

**Ravi Agrawal** (4:54)
It's always great to have you on. So you've called Trump's America predatory, a rogue state. Explain what you mean by that.

**Stephen M. Walt** (5:02)
Well, the predatory part is that the United States has, under Trump, in his second term, essentially adopted a zero-sum approach to all of its relations, not just relations towards adversaries, where all great powers tend to act in a fairly assertive and predatory fashion. But Trump is also acting that way towards some of our closest allies. You see this in the tariff policy, trying to extract concessions on economic terms by threatening other countries with tariffs, including some of our closest allies, by constantly threatening to withdraw American military protection if he doesn't get what he wants from partners, expecting allies to come to the White House and show acts of fealty and submission in a variety of different ways. All of this designed to get essentially the lion's share of any deal. So the notion that the United States might have common interests with others and we adopt mutually beneficial relations is largely alien to a predatory hegemon.