Inside the Iran War and the Pentagon's Feud with Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael

**Jason Calacanis** (0:00)
All right, everybody, emergency podcast time, episode 263 of All-In. We have Emil Michael, the undersecretary of war for research and engineering, working directly for Pete Hegson. We had to get this out to you on Thursday night because it is an emergency pod. One of my old besties, Emil Michael is here. Emil and I were part of team Uber back in the day he was, Travis's right-hand man. Some might say, Fixer. And Emil Michael is now the undersecretary for war here in the United States serving his country, like our bestie, David Sacks. Welcome to the program for the first time. Emil Michael, how are you doing, brother?

**Emil Michael** (0:41)
I'm doing good. I hope it was more than the Fixer, but you know, raising $20 billion.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:47)
Well, a deal maker, Fixer, you got it done. You got it done. He would give you the hardest things. If it was hard and that's what a Fixer is.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:55)
An operational axe. That's what they call it.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:58)
All right. Sure. In Brooklyn, we call them Fixers. With us again.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:01)
A rainmaker.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:03)
There's that too. There's that too, making it happen. With us again, Chamath Palihapitiya. How are you, brother?

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:10)
Great.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:11)
Yeah. Look at that smile. What do you got going on? You got some pokers in the fire. I'm not going to say. In the coming weeks, I think some news is going to drop. That's my prediction. I don't have any-

**David Friedberg** (1:23)
Are you loving Chamath's tweet mogging that's been going on this week?

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:26)
So good.

**David Friedberg** (1:27)
So good.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:28)
So, so good.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:30)
He's look maxing by default, but he's been mogging the gooners.

**David Friedberg** (1:34)
Yeah. So funny.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:36)
What was your favorite Friedberg?

**David Friedberg** (1:38)
The one I sent you this morning that you said, what did you say? It's so funny.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:41)
Collecting your losses by tax harvesting.

**David Friedberg** (1:45)
What did you say? Chamath said, Oh my God.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:50)
Yes, I did. Yes, I did.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:52)
Someone said something to Chamath.

**David Friedberg** (1:54)
He's like drops in. Why is everyone so mad at Chamath? All he did was lose billions in retail investors money.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:59)
Probably one page SPACs.

**David Friedberg** (2:01)
It's not like he then told them to enjoy their capital losses or anything.

**Emil Michael** (2:04)
Give the man a break.

**David Friedberg** (2:05)
Chamath's response. Yes, I did.

**Emil Michael** (2:08)
All right.

**Jason Calacanis** (2:09)
Piling on is your sultan of science. Everybody's favorite. Had a great, some great science that he brought to the show last week. Friedberg, how are you doing?

**David Friedberg** (2:20)
Oh, yeah, I've been traveling this week back at home.

**Jason Calacanis** (2:22)
All right. Sacks is out today. He's very busy on Capitol Hill. We'll talk about what he's up to next week.

**David Friedberg** (2:27)
Let's go. Come on. Let's go. Let's go.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (2:29)
Let's go. Go, Jason. All right.

**Jason Calacanis** (2:30)
The US and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran on Saturday. Today is day six of Operation Epic Fury. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed within hours of the operation. Forty senior officials have also been killed. Death toll so far, about a thousand people, according to reports. Tragically, six US. Army Reserve soldiers were killed following a drone strike on a base in Kuwait. A US submarine sank an Iranian ship off the coast of Sri Lanka. This is the first torpedo kill since World War II. Why we're at war? Been a bit of a moving target and a debate. First explanation from Rubio, he said Israel was going to attack and the US had no choice but to participate. Later, walked that back. Trump made it clear this is not a regime change effort, but we're doing this to stop terrorism and the development of ICBMs by, obviously, a pretty crazy group of individuals and obviously nuclear bombs, which we blew up a couple weeks ago. Trump also mentioned the people of Iran should seize the moment.
And take their country back. Hegseth, who believe is sure boss Emil, said, quote, this is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change and the world is better off for it. So here's an interesting polymarket right now. US forces enter Iran. This is boots on the ground by the end of March. 40% chance by the end of the year, 59% chance. So the idea that we're not going to have boots on the ground, the sharps on polymarket believe we will. Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30th? 39% chance according to polymarket and by the end of the year, 51% chance. So, Emil, I guess there are two questions people really want to know. I'll leave off why we're doing this. I think President Trump has been pretty clear now. But how long is this going to take is the one question. And are we going to have to have boots on the ground? Maybe what is success here?