Increasingly Strapped Consumers Are Tapping Out | David Hay

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**David Hay** (1:00)
Certainly, we're seeing just a lot of evidence that perhaps there is a recession already underway and it just hasn't been acknowledged, but really kind of the key thing. And I know you've talked a lot about the K-shaped recovery, the top of the K is doing well, bottom not so well. You've even brought up maybe some I-shaped recovery with a small i at the top of those that are doing well. But there's just some data here that that's the case, that how really challenged a lot of lower-income Americans are, and even kind of middle-income Americans. And really you're seeing more and more of this, how it's kind of working its way up the pyramid and starting to hit people who typically are more insulated from economic declines and contractions.

**Adam Taggart** (1:50)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money, I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Welcome you back here for a special edition of Thoughtful Money. This is something that we told you we were gonna try to do, and we are gonna pilot it here with its inaugural episode. I'm very fortunate to be joined here by David Hay. David, how are you?

**David Hay** (2:12)
Great, Adam. I'm just getting this deja vu all over again feeling for some reason.

**Adam Taggart** (2:17)
For a good reason, I'm gonna explain why to folks in just a second. But first folks, last time David was on, we talked about how he and I agreed that given his power viewing of Thoughtful Money, it's a great honor to me. I wonder if it's a great punishment or if David is a secret masochist because he watches virtually all the interviews that we do here on Thoughtful Money and is a great student of the key takeaways from them. So in my previous interviews with him, he's done a great job of saying, well, Adam, that's just like what so-and-so said when they were on last week. So we agreed to do a monthly recap with him going forward, of which this will be the first one. And it's a recap in two ways. David, in his own right, great expert, was, I believe, the chief investment officer from getting this right, of Evergreen-Gavkal, then miserably failed retirement, and has been publishing his substack, his excellent Haymaker substack.
So he's going to update us on the key elements that he sees going on with his macro and market outlook right now. And then there's going to be a part two of this video, where he and I will both go through a number of the recent guest appearances on this channel, and kind of talk about our key takeaways from them. That one is also good. That part two is going to be introducing another new release here for Thoughtful Money. YouTube has relatively recent released a channel membership program, which essentially is premium content that's available to the YouTube audience. And I have put the little membership, I've activated it, and a couple of people have signed up for it. But what I want to be able to do is provide folks on YouTube who want more content with a little bit more content. So that's what that extra content is going to be. It's going to be this monthly retroactive of David and I looking across the past couple weeks of the month and saying, okay, what were some of the really key things that stood out to us that we think are really worth putting on people's radar? So this video is going to be kind of a part one and a part two. The part one is going to be public. We're about to kick that off right now. The part two will be available to the folks that have signed up for channel memberships here on YouTube. Or if you are a premium subscriber already to the Thoughtful Money sub stack, then don't worry, you're going to be sent that part two as well. So one thing to think about the membership is if you just like to hang out in YouTube, that's kind of an extra plus level on YouTube. But if you just want everything Thoughtful Money, just subscribe to the sub stack premium service and you'll get everything going forward. Now, David said he's having deja vu all over again for good reason. We recorded this a couple of days ago and the recording disappeared into the ether. I will take 100 percent of the blame of that. It was an excellent discussion which hopefully will perhaps, maybe if possible, even improve upon this time round, David, now that we've had a practice round. But David did a phenomenal job and he's so kind to have given us so much of his time already this week and come back to do the exact same thing. So David, thank you so much for doing that.