"I'm A Buyer Of Oil Here" | Jeff Currie

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**Jeff Currie** (0:57)
Do I want to be long oil? And do I want to be long the companies and all the associated assets to them? The answer is absolutely yes. And I'll always like to say, you know, get long, buckle your seatbelt and hang on for the ride.
And that's usually the case in commodities. There is a long term story here that's very much intact. It's been pulled forward and stronger. Today's pullback gives you a buying opportunity that's probably, you know, it's a very unique opportunity right now today. You have a stronger fundamental picture on an already very bullish long term outlook. So I'm a buyer here.

**Adam Taggart** (1:43)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. It's been three months since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran War, and the world is still dealing with the ongoing effects of the oil price shock it caused. Not only is it having an inflationary impact on the prices of many goods and services, but it's also raising increasing concerns about the availability of oil supplies. Could the world soon start experiencing an inventory shortage of oil, the essential fuel that enables global commerce?
Or will the recently announced peace deal between the US and Iran allow us to avoid that fate? To find out, we've got the great good fortune to talk today with Jeff Currie, Executive Co-Chairman of ABAC's Markets. Jeff, thanks so much for joining us today.

**Jeff Currie** (2:26)
Pleasure to be here.

**Adam Taggart** (2:28)
Thank you. Well, it's an honor to have you on the program. This is the first time you're on here, so welcome. I've been telling people for a while, Jeff, that you were coming on and that you could basically cut the anticipation with a knife. So people are very excited it's finally happening. So I've written up a whole bunch of questions. We're going to go through them. And as serendipity would have it, last night, the US announced that it had reached a memorandum of understanding with Iran on the terms for a peace deal. So we're talking the morning after that, and there's an awful lot we still don't know, but I just want to note that that's been the big change in the past 24 hours.
I'm curious to hear if you think that, what impact, if any, you think that has on the situation for oil inventories, but let's start there. What is your current assessment of the global oil market right now?

**Jeff Currie** (3:21)
It's getting tighter by the minute. I mean, the SPR now in the United States is a 43-year low. Product inventories in the United States are now below the five-year ban, which is at a safety level.
The only thing that's saving the market right now is the fact that you have the SPR in there. If you didn't have the SPR, you'd be in trouble on your commercial inventory. So when we look at the inventory situation, it's getting tighter and increasing, whether it's not going to make it past July or August. So that's part of the reason they're rushing to try to get a deal done so quickly. So from an inventory perspective, it's tight. The other thing that has happened is that you've seen a lot of oil leak out of the straits, as the president himself admitted to, as barrels got through.
There was roughly somewhere around 110 to 120 million barrels that were trapped in the Gulf. That leak got roughly, they're basically ships floating in there. That leak got roughly somewhere around 40 to 50 percent of that trapped in oil out, which has helped in why we're seeing depression in prices. I've also heard there was some production that was brought back online through the leaks. But at most, we're talking a million to 2 million barrels per day of extra supply against a disruption that started out around 12 So we assume the disruption is 12 It's now somewhere around 10 When we look at inventories, whether it's strategic reserves or commercial inventories, the draw rates are still somewhere in that 6 million barrels a day range, 5 to 6 million barrels per day. That's just unheard of. That's why this has, it's like the sinkhole. They're going down really fast and you need to do something to stop this, which is why you're seeing the aggressive nature of the administration of trying to get this deal over the line.