Ian Bremmer on Navigating a Fragmenting World

**Ian Bremmer** (0:04)
I think one of the long-term implications of the Iran War is that the GCC is increasingly not fit for purpose.
The Emiratis will tell you that, you know, in a time of war, this is when you really know who your friends are. Number one for them in this environment has been Israel. Saudis, it's a very different story. It's Pakistan, it's Egypt, it's Turkey. I think that becomes bigger, not smaller, after this war is over or as it comes to a pause. So the changing geopolitics in the Middle East, a very, very significant takeaway here.

**Bill Loveless** (0:35)
The global order that shaped the past several decades is giving way to a more fragmented and uncertain world. Longstanding alliances are under strain, economic integration is giving way to competition, and geopolitical risk is once again a central driver of markets and policy. These shifts are not abstract. They are reshaping trade flows, disrupting supply chains, and contributing to volatility in energy markets and the broader economy, affecting everything from fuel prices to the cost of goods. So how might great power competition, geopolitical fragmentation, and global instability redefine the international landscape? And what will that mean for policymakers, businesses, and the global energy system?
This is Columbia Energy Exchange, a weekly podcast from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. I'm Bill Loveless.
Today on the show, Jason Bordoff talks to Ian Bremmer at the Center on Global Energy Policy's Energy Summit 2026 in New York City. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a leading geopolitical risk advisory firm, and GZERO Media, a digital media company providing coverage of international affairs. He's the author of 11 books, including his latest work, The Power of Crisis, How Three Threats, and Our Response Will Change the World. Among his many other activities, Ian teaches at Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs. Here's Jason and Ian Bremmer. I hope you enjoy their conversation.

**Jason Bordoff** (2:24)
Great to have you here, Ian.
Professor here at SIPA and founder and president, of course, of Eurasia Group, tennis aficionado. Thank you for making time to be with us.

**Ian Bremmer** (2:34)
Tennis partner of Jason. Yeah, that's important.

**Jason Bordoff** (2:36)
Your weekly e-mail is must reading for lots of people who pay attention to this world. In your most recent yesterday, you argue, I think, that the US seems to want a ceasefire.
You think it's likely to be extended. Then over the weekend, we saw the US reportedly seizing an Iranian ship. It seems like people are on planes headed to Pakistan now. Can you just give us a sense of where you think we are in this moment? Do the Iranians think they have the upper hand right now?

**Ian Bremmer** (3:06)
First of all, I enjoyed the first panel. I caught most of it. I thought it was a great kickoff. A lot of wonderful people here. I'm sure everyone understands and appreciates that. It's nice to be sharing a stage with you. I'm glad I was in town. Look, I don't know if the Iranians think they have the upper hand, but they're certainly acting like they have a lot of leverage.
The fact that President Trump has had to flip, and one of the biggest flips he's made has not been rhetorical in the last six weeks. It's been going from taking the sanctions off of Iran for export and letting them make a lot more money than they were making to a blockade.
That is a display of willingness to take more economic pain, which he doesn't want to do because he understands that he needs more leverage with the Iranians. Not the best look, right? That to me means a lot more than I think I count five times now.

**Jason Bordoff** (4:07)
I mean, there was a lot of economic pain before. This is a bit additional because you're basically taking some Iranian oil exports off the market, but trying to make sure they feel pain.

**Ian Bremmer** (4:15)
Make sure they feel pain. Again, I mean, their economic environment in terms of, again, you're the energy guy. I'm not, but I just think that what Trump is doing is trying to have a little more credibility at the table before this second round of Islamabad talks. My understanding as of an hour ago is that Kalabaf is definitely attending as long as Vance definitely is. I don't think there's any question around having a second round.
It's very clear to me that Trump wants to announce a win. He's desperate to announce a win. He wants to get past this.

**Jason Bordoff** (4:51)
What does that look like? What does the deal look like? Do you think that allows some ceasefire and resolution?