How will a US and Iran deal affect global shipping?

**Rahul Tandon** (0:00)
Is one of the world's most important shipping lanes finally open?

**SPEAKER_2** (0:04)
Essentially, ships are starting to go out. Now, on Friday, it will be completely open.

**Jacob Larsson** (0:09)
Because right now, all we have are these sort of relatively loose statements. That's not really enough for planning to be initiated.

**Rahul Tandon** (0:16)
It's World Business Report from the BBC World Service. I'm Rahul Tandon. How long will it take to reopen the Strait of Awe Moves Fully? We'll hear from leading figures from within the shipping industry. And as the UK bans social media for under 16th, is that the right approach? Or should they be looking more closely at the business model?
It's been quite a day for the global economy. Oil prices are falling, stock markets are rising, the Dow has ended at a record high. And that is all because President Trump, speaking at the G7 Summit, insisted that ships have already started sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:59)
The deal's all signed, and the Strait has already partially opened. As you know, they're doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they've already found. But it's essentially, ships are starting to go out now. On Friday, it'll be completely opened.

**Rahul Tandon** (1:16)
That would be a huge moment, wouldn't it, for the global economy. A peace deal between the US and Iran could lead to supplies of gas and oil flowing more freely to Asia. In particular, we've talked on this programme about the impact the closure, the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had on Asian economies.
But is it happening at the moment? Enchu from our verified team has been looking at the traffic through the Strait.

**SPEAKER_5** (1:42)
The evidence suggests not in any large scale, despite what Donald Trump has been saying on social media about the big uptick in traffic going through there. We estimate that one ship, a Japanese-owned liquefied natural gas tanker called the Disha, has since this deal was announced on Sunday night, gone through the Strait of Hormuz, heading from east to west. There's a couple of other cargo vessels we're tracking called the Kaiser and Blue Ocean One, which do seem to be possibly trying to make the same crossing as well, but not a huge amount of traffic based on ships' transponder details. Now, we should have a health warning here that this is based on those radio transponders. Often ships turn them off. They have been transiting. There is evidence they have been transiting in recent weeks, increasingly with them off. So it's possible there is more traffic than we are recognising or being able to identify at the moment.

**Rahul Tandon** (2:37)
Let us bring you now from some voices from leading figures from within the global shipping industry. Let's start with Jacob Larsson. He is Chief Safety and Security Officer at BIMCO, the world's largest membership organisation for shipping.

**Jacob Larsson** (2:51)
The majority of ship owners, they are of course worried that the situation is as volatile as it has been here in the past couple of months.
And what they fear is just another extension of that volatility. And what they really need to see is a stable ceasefire, and they need to see some clear directives as to where they can sail, when they can sail, whom they should coordinate with. Because right now all we have are these sort of relatively loose statements. That's not really enough for planning to be initiated.

**Rahul Tandon** (3:22)
Your organization represents the majority of people in the shipping industry, doesn't it, in terms of ship owners? So when you're talking to them at this point in time, this evening, are they optimistic? Are they pessimistic? What are they saying to you?

**Jacob Larsson** (3:39)
Well, I think they're basically saying that they really hope that this time it will actually materialize and that the deal will come through. But they're also a bit sceptical because they have seen now for a number of times these unilateral and overly optimistic announcements from Trump. And you know, the fact that they say that there is a deal and, but nobody really knows what it entails. I think that that leaves many ship owners a bit worried. And then therefore they really like to see what actually do we have on the table.

**Rahul Tandon** (4:09)
So how long is it going to take for things to return to normal? Let's bring in two other leading figures from within the industry. We have Niels Hoppt, who is head of communications at one of the world's biggest container shipping firms, Hapag-Lloyd. They suspended transit through the Straits of Hormuz in March 2026 And also we have Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary General of the International Maritime Organization, who is joining us live from London. Arsenio, can I come to you firstly?