Housing Market Now Falling Into A Deflationary Vortex | Reventure Consulting's Nick Gerli

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**Nick Gerli** (0:44)
Current assessment of the housing market is that it's in a disinflation and deflationary vortex right now. Home price growth on the national basis has slowed to basically flat year over year, and now home prices are declining in almost half the states in the US. Meanwhile, rent growth has slowed to its lowest level in 14 years, indicating that we're just seeing inventory pile up all across the housing market. I think this could be the precipice of a big decline, and I think these declines are going to continue into 2026

**Adam Taggart** (1:21)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. The housing market remains in an injured state, with transactions still frozen and an increasing number of states seeing falling prices. But the Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts and mortgage rates are now lower than they were at the start of the year. So will we start to see some healing in the housing market as we head into 2026, or will things get worse from here? Today, we've got the good fortune to be joined by Nick Gerli, founder of Reventure Consulting and creator of the excellent Reventure App. Nick will walk us through his latest outlook on the US housing market and share a number of charts with us. Nick, thanks so much for joining us today.

**Nick Gerli** (2:00)
Great being here, Adam. Thank you for having me on.

**Adam Taggart** (2:03)
Hey, I very much appreciate you coming back on Nick. Look, lots to talk about here. I know you got a ton of charts that you want to walk us through, and there's a couple of key points you and I have already identified to talk through here. But if we can, just very high-level summary level, what's your current assessment of the US housing market?

**Nick Gerli** (2:21)
Current assessment of the housing market is that it's in a disinflation and deflationary vortex right now. Home price growth on the national basis has slowed to basically flat year over year, and now home prices are declining in almost half the states in the US. Meanwhile, rent growth has slowed to its lowest level in 14 years, indicating that we're just seeing inventory pile up all across the housing market. I think this could be the precipice of a big decline, and I think these declines are going to continue into 2026

**Adam Taggart** (2:52)
Okay. Recipice of a big decline. Nick, if I remember last time you and I talked, you weren't sure if we were going to have a negative year, year over year in housing prices. Looks like we're getting close now, but certainly flat year over year right now, as you just said.
But being on the precipice of a bigger decline here, are you more pessimistic about the future of the housing market than you were when you and I talked just three or four months ago?

**Nick Gerli** (3:21)
I am, Adam. The main reason I am is actually what's going on in the rental market right now. The rental market has taken a big downward shift the last six months. We're seeing declining rents in more and more markets, and we're actually seeing the lowest single-family rent growth we've seen in 14 years, going back to the end of the last housing crash. When you see the rental market also start to experience the downturn at the same time as the for sale market, that's telling you fundamentally speaking, there's weakness, there's disinflation and deflationary pressures going on. Of course, this is still a very local story. Not all areas are feeling this the same way. However, I have become more pessimistic over the last six months.

**Adam Taggart** (4:04)
Nick, do you think this is because more and more households are becoming challenged, and therefore, they can afford to pay less for rents and afford to pay less for houses? We've talked about the huge unaffordability that's going on in the housing market right now. Or is this more of an inventory story, where there's just more and more inventory coming on and a lot of supply and demand? If you've got a lot of supply, demand is lower.