Housing falls post-Budget, is adding to Super worth it & Pimp my Portfolio with Owen Rask

**Ren** (0:00)
Everything you're about to hear is for education and entertainment purposes only. Whilst we are licensed when not aware of your personal financial circumstances, any advice is general advice. Equity Mates operates under Australian Financial Services license 540697 The narrative continues, Sydney and Melbourne both down.

**Bryce** (0:19)
Don't blame the budget, don't blame the government. It is a pure reflection of interest rates. Out of their control.
Welcome to another episode of Equity Mates, a podcast where we explore what's possible in the world of investing. My name is Bryce.

**Ren** (0:35)
And I'm Ren. And today we are talking all things property investing post budget. We're talking about the crazy stories coming out of the South Korean stock market. We're weighing up investing inside of super versus outside of super. And we're closing with Pimp My Portfolio, where Owen Rask is reviewing the real portfolio of an Equity Mates community member. Bryce, another big and exciting episode.

**Bryce** (0:57)
Can't wait. Before we jump into it, we want to shout out one of our newsletters. It's called How I Got Started. And it brings to light the stories of community members and how they got started investing.

**Ren** (1:08)
Yes, investing isn't just for investors. It's for everyone. There's thousands, hundreds of thousands of Equity Mates just like you, who are on the investing journey, figuring it out together, learning and growing their portfolios every day. And How I Got Started is where we feature those stories. We feature your stories. So sign up. The link is in the YouTube description and the podcast show notes. But also if you want to be featured in the email, hit us up. We'd love to share your story with the Equity Mates community. Because investing is intimidating if you're not in the world. And we think sharing common stories, everyday stories makes it less intimidating.

**Bryce** (1:48)
In fact, it's something that was called out in the Equity Mates community survey that we do every year. You guys want more stories. This is it.

**Ren** (1:58)
Well, look, with that said, let's get to some of the big stories moving markets.

**Bryce** (2:06)
The two stories we're covering today, we've got some fresh data looking at the impact of the budget on the property market here in Australia.
And let's just say leverage is the new game over in South Korea. We'll unpack that in a bit. But Rene, let's start with property. Obviously, the budget still continues to create a lot of debate in the Equity Mates community. What impact it's having. We're now seeing some data from Westpac and also some data on property prices.

**Ren** (2:35)
Let's start with Westpac. Their economist did some work and looked at the combination of the budget changes and the higher interest rates. Keep in mind, we've had three interest rate rises so far this year. Currently, the RBA's cash rate is at the same level that it was at the peak of the inflation spike in 2022, 2023
Westpac put those together and forecast what it would do, particularly on the investing side. They expect a 34% fall in new investor activity.
A third of new investors will no longer be entering the market. They also expect a shift in where investors are buying. Currently, about 20% of investors are buying new builds, which to me was surprisingly high. They expect that to rise to 40%.

**Bryce** (3:27)
Which makes sense.

**Ren** (3:28)
It makes sense, but it's also like even if you can get a negative gearing, total return is what matters. And total return on new builds hasn't been as good. So just probably keep that in mind. So that's the investor side. Then they expect a total market. They expect a 20% decline in total dwelling turnover.

**Bryce** (3:47)
Some pretty solid numbers there. And I mean, ultimately, what we're seeing is 20% decline in dwelling turnover. So less supply on the market. So you could argue that will lead to price increase if the same buyer demand is there. With a 34% fall in new investor activity, there goes a large chunk of the demand as well. Now, what we're not seeing is what impact it's going to have on new home buyers and whether there's going to be an increase in new home buyers. We're not sure.

**Ren** (4:13)
First home buyers.

**Bryce** (4:14)
Sorry, first home buyers. Yeah, first home buyers. But I mean, at face value, you would expect with these numbers that it's certainly not going to lead to a price increase.

**Ren** (4:23)
Yeah, so less buyers in the market, less sellers potentially slower turnover. Westpac expect that to net out to prices basically being flat in 2026 They expect to see outright declines in Sydney and Melbourne, down 3% and 4% respectively. And then slowing growth in some of the smaller capital cities. Brisbane, 9% Perth, 13%, Adelaide, 7%.