Good Friday - Best of Caller Questions

**Justin Klein** (0:00)
This is a special Invest Talk, Best of Caller Questions compilation program. Remember, the Invest Talk phone lines never close. Please call with questions. 888-99-CHART. 888-99-CHART. They will be played and answered on an upcoming Invest Talk podcast.

**Luke Guerrero** (0:22)
Let's take a live call. Dan in Walnut Creek wants to talk about Precious Metals.

**Dan** (0:27)
Hey there, Justin, thanks for taking my call.

**Luke Guerrero** (0:29)
Of course.

**Dan** (0:29)
Yeah, it's just kind of curious. Since Precious Metals seem to be a little bit of a downtrend right now, it's a good time to buy.

**Luke Guerrero** (0:37)
I do think we're getting to that point where it's going to be a nice buying opportunity. Now, we still may see a little bit more down from here, but we're starting to enter the zone. And when I say the zone, it means the area where these stocks broke out. Now, are you talking about gold and silver itself or the miners?

**Dan** (0:58)
The miners, mainly. They held on for a little while, but they're starting to go down a little bit now, too.

**Luke Guerrero** (1:03)
Yeah, they pulled back. The GDX hit the lowest level today since early January. So even with this large pullback, it's actually still up on the year. And it's approaching levels where you saw the peak back in October and you had a bit of a sell-off that refreshed everything, went through a consolidation period, and then broke out kind of the beginning of the year.
And that high in October was right around $85. GDX today closed at $88. So I think there's support in this area. When you have a pivot, we call it a pivot point, where it hit a high and reversed for a period of time, and then it broke back above, broke out of that pivot point, oftentimes when it returns to that price after the subsequent sell-off, like you're seeing now, that is good support. And so, is there another 2% to 3% down on miners, maybe over the next week or two? Absolutely, I think that's certainly possible, but this is that zone. Mid-80s is where you wanna pick up GDX or the subsequent miners within it, if you feel you need to up your position in precious metals. Now, a lot of people have a lot already, especially if you listen to this program for a period of time, you've probably bought some precious metals and you own a lot, so maybe you're feeling a little pain in the near term, but clearly, it's still in a broader uptrend and it's starting to enter that zone of adding to positions, especially if you maybe trimmed your positions over the past couple months ago when I was saying, you know, sentiment was a bit frothy. Now, it's starting to get reset and I think that's a good buying opportunity.

**Dan** (2:42)
What about copper? I know that southern copper's been going down and I don't know if that's because of issues and people are concerned with Mexico or if that's just...

**Luke Guerrero** (2:53)
No, it's simply industrial epic. When the input to industrial products is energy of some kind, whether that's natural gas or oil, then it makes it less economical to produce those goods and that means less money or less demand for things like copper. There's also the stronger dollar that's an aspect here.
There's a dearth of supply coming out of the Middle East as well. So there's a lot of reasons for this pullback in metals in general and copper. I think it's just getting caught up in that. And I also think that we're close to getting to a point where it's a good place to pick up some names. Thanks for the call.

**Luke Guerrero** (3:34)
Let's head over to the Invest Talk YouTube comment section question bank to take a look at this question that came in yesterday. And it says, You mentioned fertilizer and second beneficiary. Would you say petrochemical companies and grain especially will do well moving forward? Supercycle or just medium term? ADM, CF, and A&DE are examples.

**SPEAKER_5** (3:58)
Thank you.

**Luke Guerrero** (4:00)
Well, a little bit convoluted to be able to fully predict what second order effects will be of rising input costs. We talk about this and we actually have a story we're going to be talking about a little later on about how a lot of people are focusing on oil, but the components that are making up fertilizer, a lot of that comes from the Middle East and passes through the Strait of Hermous. I have heard stories, been talking to people, farmers who are already worried about the cost of fertilizer. It's not just a cost thing. At a certain point, it becomes less about how much you have to pay and if you'll be able to pay at all.