Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time

**John Coogan** (0:00)
Gavin Baker, welcome to the show. How are you doing?

**Gavin Baker** (0:03)
Doing great, man. How are you guys?

**John Coogan** (0:05)
Fantastically, right? SpaceX IPO, it seems like everything went just flawlessly to a T, to the point where it wasn't even dramatic.

**Jordi Hays** (0:15)
Let's give a round of applause for the bankers.

**John Coogan** (0:16)
The bankers, like 20% perfect.

**Jordi Hays** (0:18)
20% pop almost to a T.

**John Coogan** (0:20)
Yeah, what I mean by that is like, it would have been more dramatic if it had like popped up 70% and then went down 30 and then went up 50 and it was drama, but it was just like perfect execution from start to finish. Was that how you interpreted it?

**Gavin Baker** (0:34)
I thought Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley did a very good job.

**Jordi Hays** (0:37)
Yeah.

**John Coogan** (0:39)
What do you think the market is looking for SpaceX next? Is it all eyes on the first earnings report? Like where do we go from here? Because there's so much of the SpaceX story pre-IPO that was a decade out, five years out, two years out. But is the market going to be processing quarter-by-quarter plays like many other companies?

**Gavin Baker** (0:59)
Well, I think the market is always quarters matter.

**John Coogan** (1:02)
Yeah.

**Gavin Baker** (1:04)
The runners on X, it's like they're these reply people on X for any topic or experts.

**John Coogan** (1:09)
Yeah.

**Gavin Baker** (1:10)
But somebody once told me a marathon is 26 one-mile runs.

**John Coogan** (1:14)
Yeah.

**Gavin Baker** (1:16)
So then all the runners were like, no, that's not true at all. Obviously, running a mile is different than running a marathon. But every quarter matters. But at the same time, I do think if you look at how the market has looked at Tesla over the last five, six years, Amazon during the days of when they were building out AWS, and then their retail distribution infrastructure when they go through these investment cycles. I do think the public market has a much greater tolerance for investment and a much longer time horizon than a lot of people in the venture ecosystem give it credit for. By the way, this is Foxy in the back.
He's one of the analysts here at Atreides.

**John Coogan** (2:04)
I was just listening to him on the Brad Gerstner podcast. I think he chimed in on that, right? You brought him with? There we go.

**Gavin Baker** (2:10)
Yes, he did. But he did the work on SpaceX, so I thought you guys might want to talk about that.
I'm not sure the story is as far out as you made it seem to be. I think there are two variables that are going to matter a lot over the next year. The first is just how quickly can they bring on terrestrial compute. It does seem like they monetize gigawatts at a higher rate than anyone else. We know from Jensen that they bring on data centers faster than anyone else, per Jensen's words. Everyone in the ecosystem is really incented to get lead power in the hands of people who can energize it, because everybody starts making more money when the GPUs are energized.
What was the altimeter figure for what they were monetizing gigawatts at, Foxy? Do you remember for what you do?

**Jordi Hays** (3:09)
Well, I think it was like two to three, wasn't it at least two times higher than average NeoCloud pricing, and that's partly in due to scale and customer quality and things like that, but it was meaningful.

**Gavin Baker** (3:21)
They're doing 50 billion gigawatt on Google deal. So how quickly they can add gigawatts really matters.
If you can energize two, three, four gigawatts in the next year, that's a lot of revenue. Now, prices may go up, they may go down, but that's really going to matter.

**John Coogan** (3:40)
All eyes on colossus three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, et cetera, at least in the short term.

**Gavin Baker** (3:45)
Yeah, or macro hard, macro harder, macro hardest. To that name, yeah, macro hardest.

**John Coogan** (3:51)
Yeah.

**Gavin Baker** (3:53)
And then I think cursor is another big variable.
We talked about it with Brad about how Composer 2.5, after three weeks of RL and supervised fine-tuning Colossus 2, is kind of Pareto dominant. So what's going to happen when it's applied to a bigger, better base model? I do think cursor being in half the Fortune 500 is interesting. So I think those two things, well, I mean, I'm super excited for going to Mars and asteroid mining and a city and mass drivers on the moon. All that stuff is awesome. I think there's a decent chance it happens in my lifetime.